i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[smbruin22]

i read alot of people saying they think kat or taylor will win (which i'm starting to see as reasonable).

but tradesports.com still has chris at 50%, kat and taylor at 25% each (and FWIW, elliott at 4%).....

if someone realistic thinks either taylor or kat is the leader, 3 to 1 odds seems like a steal.

i think chris is the best by far (singing plus star potential), but his angry rocker act is getting a little long in tooth for me.

[Doosh]

Take DialIdol with a grain of salt, of course, but Taylor has been on top of their results for weeks. I find it odd that a bottom 2 prediction for Kat causes huge amounts of money to flow to the "Kat's going home" bet, but the consistent result of Taylor on top doesn't have the same impact on the odds.

I never thought Chris should be the heavy favorite that he is, but I readily admit that I may not be in touch with America.

[Freerollin`]

I don't know what others think about this, but I'm in for a small wager.

Skybook has "The final two will be composed of..."

One male/one female: -140
Two males: +125

I think that there's a decent amount of value in the two males bet. Taylor and Elliot (primarily Taylor) have enough of a fan base to make this worthwhile, IMHO.

[SheVegas1972]

Nice bet with the 2 males....but you have no clue if you think it will be goat boy and Taylor. Chris and Taylor maybe, since Chris D will win this. I had that bet in 2 months ago at Chris 7:1. Elliot and Taylor makes me laugh. Get a clue.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice bet with the 2 males....but you have no clue if you think it will be goat boy and Taylor. Chris and Taylor maybe, since Chris D will win this. I had that bet in 2 months ago at Chris 7:1. Elliot and Taylor makes me laugh. Get a clue.

[/ QUOTE ]

chris looks like he's in danger of being gone tomorrow night (according to dialidol, which has been decent).

i liked katherine's performances and it seemed like the crowd did too... but they've decided that she goes under the bus (might save chris).

big flip/flop on elliott.... and i think he's still decent value to win....

i think taylor winning will be the beginning of the end for american idol.... we'll all look back on it like it was a joke pick.

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice bet with the 2 males....but you have no clue if you think it will be goat boy and Taylor. Chris and Taylor maybe, since Chris D will win this. I had that bet in 2 months ago at Chris 7:1. Elliot and Taylor makes me laugh. Get a clue.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll admit that my post wasn't quite specific enough and that your understanding of my post is plausible.

When I said that Elliot and Taylor have enough of a fanbase to make this worthwhile, I meant that one of them can make it to the final two along with Chris. I do not think that Elliot and Taylor will be the final two.

Are you satisfied with my explanation? Perhaps next time you can ask for an explanation rather than telling me that I make you laugh or to "get a clue," Ms. Grand Total of 26 (from what I've seen, worthless) Posts.

Thanks.

[Jesse Kidd]

I actually do think it can be Taylor and Elliott. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's certainly not THAT unlikely. I should go get some clues.

Jesse

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what others think about this, but I'm in for a small wager.

Skybook has "The final two will be composed of..."

One male/one female: -140
Two males: +125

I think that there's a decent amount of value in the two males bet. Taylor and Elliot (primarily Taylor) have enough of a fan base to make this worthwhile, IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skybook isn't offering this bet right now. Too bad, I would definitely bet the 2 males at +125 or even +110. Catherine has a very good chance of going home after her bad performance and more importantly, Elliot's very good performance.

[m bozeman]

I just placed an intersting hedge bet for tonight; maybe you might be interested.

I see that dialidol has Chris in the bottom 2 tonight, and that may very well be true. I just don't see him leaving tonight, though. It seems like it has to be Katherine or Elliott. I just got Elliott to go tonight at +395 and Katherine to go at -122. I placed 20 on Elliott to win 79, for a total of $99; and 80 on Katherine to go, to win 66, for a total of $146. So, I either lose $1 or win $46.

Man, has Katherine's stock dropped the last 2-3 weeks. What a shame.

[Performify]

Or to complete your hedge options, you lose $100 if Chris or Taylor go. I think anything is a possibility at this point.