theoretical hu question

[geormiet]

noles you are not making any sense [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Also this opponent will bet every street, which includes the river.

[noles321]

OK given your strange theoretical exercise it is not always +ev to call down any board with 2 pair gives you 0 equity. So a board of 3355 on the turn should obviously be folded.

[geormiet]

ok thank you now you are caught up to the 2nd post of the thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[WillyT]

So, the question, restated for those who are less good at abstraction, is

Imagine you're playing an aggressive opponent who raises 100% preflop and bets every street postflop when checked to.

If we showed 22 down every time we get it by just checking and calling, would we show a profit?

Now, of course we can change the expectation of the hand by playing it differently depending on the board and our opponents tendencies, but that's not what's being asked.


The answer to the question is YES. 22 has just over 50% equity against a random hand averaged over all different 5 card boards, so you have an expectation of just higher than the blind money on average if you take this rope a dope strategy 100% of the time.

Best,
Bill

[geormiet]

actually i wasn't asking a yes or no. Here's the question:

if our two options are either a) check calling to showdown,
or b) folding at some point before showdown

what % of the time is check calling to showdown MORE profitalbe than folding at some point?

[WillyT]

That's a much more interesting questions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's also much harder to calculate with the tools available to me.

-Bill

[WillyT]

here's a question similar to yours I can answer:

How often will my expected equity be greater than 2/3 on the flop? (that is, how often do I have the effective odds to call down on the flop when I have 22 and assumptions are as above on my opponent)

The answer to this is about 40% of the time.

So, about 60% of the time you're not getting the right price to call down from the flop.

I could do some more work and get deeper but it's not really worth my time to just freely share it here.

Best,
Bill

[YertleTurtle]

I'm not sure why WillyT thinks his equity needs to be higher than 2/3 on the flop given the opponent? On the flop to river you are getting 1/2.8 for a call down so winning a little more than 1 in 3 times would be break even. (At least this is my thinking).

YT

[WillyT]

ummm

if your expected river equity is less that 1/3 why would you call down from the flop? you're risking 2 bets to win 4. am i teh stupid?

thanks,
Bill

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
here's a question similar to yours I can answer:

How often will my expected equity be greater than 2/3 on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm

if your expected river equity is less that 1/3 why would you call down from the flop? you're risking 2 bets to win 4. am i teh stupid?

thanks,
Bill

[/ QUOTE ]

you're prob not stupid--just made a typo in thw first quote.

Also, how did you decide that your equity wouldn't be high enough on 60% of flops? Did you use some commercially available software or run your own stuff?

Well maybe you propagated your typo into real life because just messing around with stove it is pretty hard to come up with a flop where 22 has less than 35% equity.