100-200 Bellagio. There seems to be disagreement here.

FoxwoodsFiend · #1 10-20-2006, 02:21 AM

Hey, this is a hand I asked a lot of very good players about (Death Donkey, stinkeypete, newhizzle, mike l., and others). While I think I agree with one side by now, I think the fact that opinion was pretty evenly split makes this an interesting one to discuss.

Anyway, 9-handed. David Levi is UTG and is playing tired/slightly tilty. He raises. Chantel is UTG+2 and raises. Chantel has been card-dead for almost two hours and has barely played a hand. The same is true of me. So when she 3-bets in early position I put her on a huge hand despite the fact that Levi has already shown 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a UTG raise, I think Chantel has a very narrow range here. I don't think she'd do this with AT or AJ. She's not the type of player that would reraise with 66 for value here, for example. I also have found her to be a bit underaggressive and weak in our sessions.

Anyway, I look down at Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the CO and 4-bet for the first time of the session. Levi cold-calls 2, Chantel calls.
Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Levi checks, Chantel bets, I raise, Levi cold-calls, Chantel calls.
Turn:3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Levi checks, Chantel leads into me again. Raise or call time?

Victor · #2 10-20-2006, 02:28 AM

bellagio has 5bet cap right?

FoxwoodsFiend · #3 10-20-2006, 02:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bellagio has 5bet cap right?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

Victor · #4 10-20-2006, 02:38 AM

well if shes plays straightforward then she shouldnt have aa or kk from pf action. if she has a set she would likely 3bet the flop but she may play it this way to bet/3bet the turn. actually that would seem like a really good play bc you will often raise turn with the other guy in.

still it looks like jj or a set. you are calling down anyway. i cant imagine she 3bets a worse hand here. bet and fold to 3bet is my vote.

Abbaddabba · #5 10-20-2006, 02:49 AM

Considering how you phrased the post (giving such a narrow preflop range), i dont epect her to turn up much other htan JJ or 88 that you're beating. The flop and turn is inconsistent with all overcard type hands. Seems more likely that you're getting a donk/3bet.

Levi's presence is what could change it. Seems like he'd push back already with a big hand since waiting for the turn hurts action more than it helps. Looks more like he paired a 10 and is trying to improve / show down for as little as possible. And it could be a KJ or KQ. I think a draw as strong as QJ check/3bets the flop. The pot is 10 big bets before turn action... enough that you'd prefer KJ, KQ or a paired ten (except for Q10) to fold rather than call for one bet. You'd also prefer that they fold by facing them with two.

If levi folded the flop, i'd be more inclined to just call. I dont think that your hand does well against chantell alone. WIth levi involved, i'd raise. Not sure how to handle a 3bet though. I have no idea who chantel or david levi are besides the info you've given.

2win · #6 10-20-2006, 02:50 AM

You should raise. First levi will have A10,A9, or any 2 pic. card combo.or a smaller stright draw based on his action so far, maybe a smaller pocket pair but you need not to give him the 10-1 odds he is getting if you call the turn to draw out.
As for her hand, I've seen people who are card dead and are aware of thier own table image as well as others(levi being loose early)and will raise to isolate with weaker hands i.e. A10 or 88 and will get more respect from the original raiser and people yet to act. We could say she might have a set but unlikly based on flop play, or if she has you beat with AA,or KK she will reraise you and you are done with the hand(she won't re-raise you unless she could beat QQ based on the board and the action. Anyway if she is any kind of a player with any kind of a hand she will correctly bet the second best hand into a possible best hand to improve her chances of winning if you raise and levi drops.

rbenuck4 · #7 10-20-2006, 02:57 AM

I like raise and then fold to a 3 bet. The reason is if you call, David can call with probably correct odds to draw out on you (he might be drawing dead to her already). She could easily be doing this with a set, AA or KK (just because she's been playing tight, doesn't mean she has to cap preflop and give away her hand completely), and you will know with some degree of certainty if she 3 bets you on the turn.

If she calls your raise and leads the river, I puke and call.

Abbaddabba · #8 10-20-2006, 03:03 AM

And god i hate raise/folding the turn. I think if levi cold calls again and she 3bets, you should consider calling. You'll be getting 20:1 immediately plus river action, and your Q's are almost always clean since levi doesnt figure to be calling 2 bets cold on the turn with KJ.

2 queens in the deck out of 46 unknowns. It's about break even assuming a few bets on the river in implied odds

It's NEARLY (but not quite) worthwhile to call even if you're losing to a set 100% of the time.

2win · #9 10-20-2006, 03:04 AM

Anyway if she is any kind of a player with any kind of a hand she will correctly bet the second best hand into a possible best hand to improve her chances of winning if you raise and levi drops.

This applies to you also. Raising with what you think and are not sure to be the second best hand in order to increase your chances of winning with the 3rd player folding.

Abbaddabba · #10 10-20-2006, 03:24 AM

I think this is the wrong place to apply that rationale.

You hardly ever raise the turn with a hand worse than JJ or 88 (only two reasonable second best hands in her range). Or at least she will expect it to be rare.

If she is up against an overpair or set, she doesnt improve her chances of winning by facing the third guy with 2 bets unless he has KQ specifically. And for the times that this does happen, she'd be better off folding to the initial bet anyways.