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#41
10-10-2007, 09:17 AM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
This really is a Bayes theorem application . There is a conditional probability of an event when you are called . You're definitely ahead of his range when he bets the river , no doubt !
You may still be ahead of his range when he calls but not as much when he had bet . The point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't always bet the river because you're ahead of his range . It's about the probability that you're ahead of his range when he calls you . 
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#42
10-10-2007, 11:23 AM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
This really is a Bayes theorem application . There is a conditional probability of an event when you are called . You're definitely ahead of his range when he bets the river , no doubt ! You may still be ahead of his range when he calls but not as much when he had bet . The point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't always bet the river because you're ahead of his range . It's about the probability that you're ahead of his range when he calls you . [/ QUOTE ] What you aren't comprehending is that everyone understands what you are talking about, it isn't as complicated as you think/want it to be. It's painfully basic. EVEN after this, yes, given match description this is a raise always.
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#43
10-10-2007, 12:02 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
This really is a Bayes theorem application . There is a conditional probability of an event when you are called . You're definitely ahead of his range when he bets the river , no doubt ! You may still be ahead of his range when he calls but not as much when he had bet . The point I was trying to make is that you shouldn't always bet the river because you're ahead of his range . It's about the probability that you're ahead of his range when he calls you . [/ QUOTE ] We get what you're saying. I'm pretty theoretical myself, and all the stuff you said is true. The whole disagreement here is that, while what you're saying is correct, you're talking about a situation where villain's callpush range is extremely tight (house, straight, AJ,KJ,QJ). So, while your argument is correct, it doesn't apply to this situation. House is very unlikely (would be even more so had we bet the flop), straight also unlikely (this would be nonexistent had we bet the flop). Villain is calling this with any J, any overpair, and possibly worse. Give this guy a chance to make a bad call. OP: There's not a whole lot to say that hasn't been said. Bet flop, raise turn, push river. Most importantly, BET FLOP. If you're an aggressive player (which you should be), you should pretty much give up on slowplaying altogether. Especially in HU play. I think you'll find that people are still willing to pay you off when they have nothing.
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#45
10-10-2007, 01:44 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
The only hands I may see him possibly calling your river raise is something like k-j . He will not call with single pair hands unless there is some history between the two of you that I'm not aware of . There are 4 ways he may have k-j and 9 ways he may have a f.h . This is some indication to suggest that raising on the river is not exactly a great play unless you expect him to call with many worse hands . [/ QUOTE ] IMHO you are way off here. Look how our hero played the hand. When he called the turn I took it like he was representing a bluff line. Who plays a J like that? No one. Villians calling range should be immense here since heros line look like a bluff Easy raise/all-in
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#46
10-10-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
I really dont want any beef. [/ QUOTE ] beef...its whats for dinner? id like to see u guys play HU but agree to go almost all in on each other then fold for a few hands and purposefully beef eachother s stacks up to likee 500 BB then have a battle royale
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#47
10-10-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
Are all the threads in this forum is hillarious as this one? O, and for christ's sake raise somewhere! Also, usually when the preflop 3 bettor checks the flop, it's not so that he can check/fold, so betbetbetbetbet the flop.
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#48
10-10-2007, 07:29 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
Are all the threads in this forum is hillarious as this one? O, and for christ's sake raise somewhere! Also, usually when the preflop 3 bettor checks the flop, it's not so that he can check/fold, so betbetbetbetbet the flop. [/ QUOTE ] you did not apply enough theory into this post, you aren't on level imo.
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#49
10-10-2007, 11:32 PM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the advice, sorry about the final pot thing. Anyway, the guy had pocket 7s, so I lost a big pot. Which now begs the question, if a guy 3bets me preflop, gets called, then checks on J J 3 ... what am I meant to put him on considering the nature of our game? Why the [censored] would he go for a check-raise or check-call with 77 on JJ3 and give me the initiative in the hand ? I don't know, but when he checked, I just assumed he had some unpaired high cards, or total air, and for some reason gave up. This is why I flat called the turn. Am I wrong to think that his play here is strange, aside from wanting to "keep the pot small" with his decent mid pair and hopefully make showdown? Isn't it just an easy bet for him with a middle pair on that board in this spot? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems difficult to put him on 77 or 88 considering the preflop and flop action (but not the river obviously :@) Would love to here from some of the experienced heads up players here. [/ QUOTE ] There's no reasonable way you can put villain on exactly 77 or 88. I would generally check this flop as well with a mid pocket pair. Continutation betting isn't getting a lot of value as not many hands will fold that 77 is beating on a JJ3 board. Bloating the pot from villain's sense doesn't make much sense. As for how you played it, I'll generally bet the flop, then check the turn. I think this gives villain the impression that you tried to steal the pot on the flop and the large river bet is trying to steal it again. You will tend to get looked up much lighter in these situations. In heads up, no one is folding any jack here, so i woulda pushed in your case (and lost).
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#50
10-11-2007, 02:10 AM
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Re: HU CASH: do i raise this river for value?
[ QUOTE ]
Are all the threads in this forum is hillarious as this one? [/ QUOTE ] See the tournament thread for a real riot. LC is pretty solid, too. Just look at the title. And also the LC Life.
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