50NL: Implied odds/hand reading: Call flop?

[RapidEvolution]

Table is full of loose-passives and there are commonly 4-5 players to the flop.


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$19.50</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$30.50</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$37.55</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$20.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$48.00</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$51.50</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$22.00</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$16.15</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BTN T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.5, MP2 calls $0.5, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.5, SB calls $0.25, BB checks


I raise/limp here 50/50 and lean towards limping here since in all likelihood, pot will still be multiway.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2.5, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $1.5</font>,<font color="#777777">Hero ?</font>

My question is, given the way the table's been playing, is a call here +EV? I'm expecting at least one call behind me and if an 8 comes off, I can do some serious damage to 2pair hands and possibly, lower straights.

I know this isn't really a standard hand posting, but I guess I don't want to be leaving money at the table when a profitable (but unlikely) situation arises.

[David Nicoson]

I don't like calling against these villains. I think it's overly optimistic to expect sufficient implied odds for your actual outs.

We're a 10.5 : 1 dog to hit the gut shot on the turn. So we need 10.5 x $1.5 = $15.75 in total pay-off. There's already $4 in the pot, so we'd need to average another $11.75 in profit when we hit. That sounds OK, but if we get stacks in on the turn it's unlikely that the villains are drawing dead and possible that we're already beat by the flush.

If you could represent the flush when it hits as well, then it's an OK play. But the possibility of some of your opponents actually drawing to the flush takes the fun out of this play.

[Route66]

I'd be more apt to call if it were an EP bet, there were a few callers and I was closing the action... here you only have 3 nut outs (close to 15 to 1) and the flop bettor is short stacked, so implied odds aren't great. There wasn't much in the pot to begin with so I think folding here is fine.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

I would muck this. I guess there could be some positive EV to it but this draw isn't even to the nuts. You can't be sure an 8 of diamonds is going to be good and when you do hit an 8 a diamond on the river is either going to kill your action or get you stacked.