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Old 11-27-2007, 02:20 PM
JaredL JaredL is offline
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Default Winning rivalry games, is it a skill?

In the Lloyd Carr thread, it was at least hinted at that Michigan needs someone who can beat Ohio State. I asked if people actually believe that there is something to it other than the same thing that it would take to beat, say, Penn State. An Ohio State fan said that there was.

Do you guys agree? Is there some coaching skill for winning big games? This feels a lot like clutch to me, which most people don't believe exists, at least consistently.

Lloyd Carr has a reputation for not being able to beat Ohio State. He started out with 5 wins in 6 tries but in the last 7 games he lost 6.

I'm curious about this so I'm looking up the years of his wins and losses. I will post the results either way.

Records aren't everything, but here are Michigan and Ohio State's regular-season records each year, excluding their game.

Carr vs Cooper: (starts with UM at OSU)
Year UM OSU winner
1996 7-3 10-0 UM
1997 10-0 10-1 UM
1998 9-2 9-1 OSU
1999 8-2 6-5 UM
2000 7-3 8-2 UM

Based just on this it would appear that OSU was significantly better in their first game and played at home and lost. Perhaps marginally better in the last loss at home as well. Second and third seem evenly matched and the home team won. In the fourth Michigan were the better team and won at home. The first game on the list is really the only one that is surprising.

Carr vs Tressel (starts with OSU at UM)
year UM OSU Result
2001 8-2 6-4 OSU
2002 9-2 12-0 OSU
2003 9-2 10-1 UM
2004 9-1 6-4 OSU
2005 7-3 8-2 OSU
2006 9-2 11-0 OSU
2007 8-3 10-1 OSU

First game Michigan had a better record and were playing at home and went down. Same story in 2004, though they played in Columbus. Otherwise they were pretty even or Ohio State were clearly the better team.

So for the most part things went to the favorites. Carr got one big upset over Cooper and Tressel got one over Carr. Seems like you can't say much. The general sentiment is that Carr is better than Cooper but not as good as Tressel in these games but it seems like just a reaction to an upset on either side.
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