Push on the bubble with 5 high?

[TimberBee]

Sry if I'm posting basic questions tonight, but I'm kind of linechecking my SnG-game. This is also a 16$turbo 9handed.

I've been very active lately, been in some all in confrontations, and I've been beaten down to where I am now. I have not pushed in the last 5 hands though, for various reasons(one of them I should've pushed, but I didn't).

Standard or spew?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3100
Button: t2065
Hero: t2035
BB: t6300

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t2010</font>

[DevinLake]

I think it is very close. Really depends on your read of the BB and how the other short stack is playing.

[Little John]

Fold this for sure and push one of the next two hands. You will still have FE.

[BillytheKidd]

betting 2000 to win 600? Without SNGPT here at work I think a better spot can be found. With BB having the chip lead he could be calling pretty light and would be calling 1600 to win 4100. Also, what does he think of you? Does he know you are pushing ATC?

I think this is a fold, either find a better spot or let someone else fall on the sword first.

[doubLe a tom]

i think folding there is a mistake.

[jesse8888]

You've gotta push one of your next 3 hands, that much is obvious. So pushing is totally ok IMHO.

ICM says your chips are currently worth $24.21 (thats if you fold after posting 200 of them). If you push and he folds your chips are worth $29.50. If you push and he calls and you lose, you chips are obviously worth 0. If you push and he calls an you win, your chips are worth about $38.80 (used a standard icm calculator for that)

Its safe to say that if he calls, you are gonna be a 2 to 1 dog pretty much all the time (sometime a bit worse, but maybe he'll call you with 22 or A2 or something to even that out). So lets say he calls 20% of the time. Thats:

80% you have 29.50
13% you have 0
7% you have 38.80

So with 20% calls, your EV is 26.32.
30% calls works out to 24.53
33% calls works out to 24.03

So basically, if you think he'll call 30% of the time or less, you should push. It's pretty close, and I'd have laid it down, but I don't think pushing is bad at all.

[jesse8888]

BillyTheKid has an excellent point in that the big stack is getting pretty good odds (about 5 to 3 it looks like). With those odds and that many chips, he really could call you with Q-high.