Difficult spot with QQ late in FTP 19k GTD (24+2)

[CybrPunk]

I'm 70% certain that villain has KK or AA. The remainder of his range in my mind is AK but I think it's much less likely based on how I've observed his play. He definitely doesn't make this move with JJ or AQ here.

If I figure that 70% of the time I'm 80/20 and 30% I'm 50/50 gives me what I figure to be 29% equity. If I gave myself 35% equity here I really think that would be hugely optimistic. I seriously expect this is his exact range and I'd probably wager your first-born on it (note: not mine).

Even with a read like this, still call?

[TFGoose]

Assuming you're positive MP2 is going to at least call CO's re-raise, then you're getting over 3 to 1 on your call. If you're considering folding QQ in this spot with 7BB with those odds, you'd pretty much have to KNOW you were staring down KK and AA/AK for these two hands. It sounds like you're pretty sure at least one of those hands is out against you, so maybe you can fold this even with those odds. But seriously, you'd have to be about 100% sure to make a fold the best play.

--TFGoose

[Pudge714]

CybrPunk,
Just because he has been playing like a giant nit for 100 hands of full ring poker, doesn't mean he won't 3bet here with JJ+ AK. This is a really really easy shove regardless of your stack size.

[RichC.]

Even given your reads of the players, I dont see any way in the world you can fold this with only 7bbs left and getting 3:1.

[CybrPunk]

I'm sad to say that I did fold. At the time my thinking was that I can't possibly be ahead of the nit and I'd be better off pushing to steal blinds in the next orbit. In looking at it more today I'm realizing that I had a chance to nearly triple up there and greatly increase my chances of making a final table. I'm still pretty sure I was behind the nit, but that rare chance I wasn't could have been worth it to me I guess. As it was I went card dead for the next 10 minutes and finally was called pushing on the button with random trash and busted in 17th place. I couldn't help but think back to this hand and feel like I made a horrible mistake.