NL100- J 10s str8 on river faces all-in

[smw1992]

Villain is 33/0/3 over 25 hands.
Can we even think of folding to this river bet? I have been running bad the last few days and this huge overbet had me thinking about monsters (K,10).

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($107.70)
Hero ($140.70)
MP1 ($87.90)
MP2 ($84.20)
MP3 ($108.20)
CO ($105.60)
Button ($61)
SB ($99.75)
BB ($40.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, MP3 calls $4, CO folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($12.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: ($12.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $109.2 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[Johnes Benjamin]

You are really hoping for a split here and I think he has KT pretty often. I would probably fold.

[prunch]

k 10 is really likely, any other made hand on the turn he is most likely betting, ugly hand tho

[King Spew]

KT.... if not, tip o' the hat to villian.

I fold.

[Eggpie]

I fold too. Villain knows hes only getting called by another 10 if he pushes, and if he hasn't got the nut straight, hes going to be scared you have it.

Also, i bet/call river to about $6-7. Hes checking too many hands behind here that may call one bet but won't bet themselves

[Bianculli]

I don't understand your line at all. What else does he bet the river with other than some 10 after checking the turn? I don't like your c/r with just a 10 for a split. I don't like calling this with just a chance to split.

[Jurrr]

River check is FPS. As played it is a tough spot. I think his range is all sorts of hands with a T but calling and seeing KT would be sick enough to warrant a fold. I think it's close to neutral EV though.

[machine]

fold pre-flop and no hard decison, but as played i also fold. Also bet/call river.

[GrandMelon]

checking the river is bad, hes checking behind a ton of one and 2 pair hands that might call a small bet and getting shoved on here is really no fun

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
River check is FPS. As played it is a tough spot. I think his range is all sorts of hands with a T but calling and seeing KT would be sick enough to warrant a fold. I think it's close to neutral EV though.

[/ QUOTE ]

you really should be running this c/r when you have the nuts (KT) or when you can represent it...

also, like everybody else mentioned, a better line would be to b/f or b/c, since many 2p/set hands will call, but will not raise a 4 straight anyways.