PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 1)

[Fonzy4]

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hey is phili's run stopping really that good, or was it a combo of gb's being that bad ?

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It was just the Packers running game being really bad...
1.Started rookie Brandon Jackson at RB, do to injuries to Morency.
2.Packers FB was also a Rookie.
3.Only 16 rushing attempts
Hopefully Jennings and Morency play next week. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Jack of Arcades]

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-I think we'll always disagree on the EAgles, so I'll just leave that alone for now. But notice that they are running away with your poll choice for "ranked too high", so maybe just maybe you're being a bit of a homer there, no?

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No, he's not being a homer. PF is one of the most objective posters on this board.

[PokerFink]

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5. DALLAS
Dallas can score and it doesn't look like Philly or Washington can.


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Ok, I tried to ignore this, but I just can't. It's called adjusting for opponent. New York's defense is terrible. Green Bay's is very good. Do you really think Philly will have a difficult time tearing up that New York secondary?

If you think Dallas is better than Philly, fine. I welcome disagreement and discussion. But I would like to see some logical reasoning, not "zomg we put up a lot of points against one of the worst defenses in the league while you only scored 13 against one of the best."

[PokerFink]

For those interested, these are the NFC DAVE rankings from FO.

DAVE is a combination of preseason DVOA expectation and week 1 performance. It is 90% preseason and 10% week 1. Note, preseason expectation is not based on the preseason games, LDO, it's an expectation for the season based on a lot of factors.

1. Philadelphia (2nd in NFL) 23.3%
2. Carolina (6th) 11.2%
3. Washington (8th) 10.7%
4. Tampa Bay (10th) 5.7% **
5. Green Bay (11th) 5.0%
6. Seattle (12th) 4.1%

7. Chicago (14th) -.6%
8. San Fran (15th) -1.9%
9. Minny (17th) -2.2%
10. Dallas (19th) -3%
11. Detroit (20th) -4.2%
12. Atlanta (22nd) -5.6%
13. New York (24th) -8.5%
14. New Orleans (26th) -12.2% **
15. Arizona (29th) -16.4%
16. St. Louis (31st) -23.9%

** The FO staff is in consensus that something wacky is going on with the Tampa Bay and New Orleans rankings. Probably due to the fact that DVOA expectation takes 2005 into account, which really skews the rankings of these two teams.

[Assani Fisher]

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i just started reading so i'll comment more later but i'd just like to say that it's painfully obvious that you put in that note about how these are *projected* rankings solely because of where you ranked the eagles.

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it's painfully obvious you're dumb.

that note is at the top of every one of PF's NFC rankings going back to the start of last year

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So he made a mistake and didn't read fully...why the totally unecessary personal attack?

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
For those interested, these are the NFC DAVE rankings from FO.

DAVE is a combination of preseason DVOA expectation and week 1 performance. It is 90% preseason and 10% week 1. Note, preseason expectation is not based on the preseason games, LDO, it's an expectation for the season based on a lot of factors.

1. Philadelphia (2nd in NFL) 23.3%
2. Carolina (6th) 11.2%
3. Washington (8th) 10.7%
4. Tampa Bay (10th) 5.7% **
5. Green Bay (11th) 5.0%
6. Seattle (12th) 4.1%

7. Chicago (14th) -.6%
8. San Fran (15th) -1.9%
9. Minny (17th) -2.2%
10. Dallas (19th) -3%
11. Detroit (20th) -4.2%
12. Atlanta (22nd) -5.6%
13. New York (24th) -8.5%
14. New Orleans (26th) -12.2% **
15. Arizona (29th) -16.4%
16. St. Louis (31st) -23.9%

** The FO staff is in consensus that something wacky is going on with the Tampa Bay and New Orleans rankings. Probably due to the fact that DVOA expectation takes 2005 into account, which really skews the rankings of these two teams.

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I really don't see how you can continue to take that stuff seriously when you read some of those rankings.

[CharlieDontSurf]

[ QUOTE ]
For those interested, these are the NFC DAVE rankings from FO.

DAVE is a combination of preseason DVOA expectation and week 1 performance. It is 90% preseason and 10% week 1. Note, preseason expectation is not based on the preseason games, LDO, it's an expectation for the season based on a lot of factors.

1. Philadelphia (2nd in NFL) 23.3%
2. Carolina (6th) 11.2%
3. Washington (8th) 10.7%
4. Tampa Bay (10th) 5.7% **
5. Green Bay (11th) 5.0%
6. Seattle (12th) 4.1%

7. Chicago (14th) -.6%
8. San Fran (15th) -1.9%
9. Minny (17th) -2.2%
10. Dallas (19th) -3%
11. Detroit (20th) -4.2%
12. Atlanta (22nd) -5.6%
13. New York (24th) -8.5%
14. New Orleans (26th) -12.2% **
15. Arizona (29th) -16.4%
16. St. Louis (31st) -23.9%

** The FO staff is in consensus that something wacky is going on with the Tampa Bay and New Orleans rankings. Probably due to the fact that DVOA expectation takes 2005 into account, which really skews the rankings of these two teams.

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LOL

[Jack of Arcades]

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i just started reading so i'll comment more later but i'd just like to say that it's painfully obvious that you put in that note about how these are *projected* rankings solely because of where you ranked the eagles.

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it's painfully obvious you're dumb.

that note is at the top of every one of PF's NFC rankings going back to the start of last year

[/ QUOTE ]

So he made a mistake and didn't read fully...why the totally unecessary personal attack?

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PokerFink's done this thing like, what? 20 times now? Not only did he call PF a homer out of his own ignorance, he stated it quite matter-of-factly. Calling into someone's objectivity is pretty serious, and acting like you're so obviously right when you aren't is a pretty dickish thing to do.

[Jack of Arcades]

I wonder if you read the note. Probably not.

Tampa was ranked 24th in terms of unadjusted performance in Week 1.

[PokerFink]

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I really don't see how you can continue to take that stuff seriously when you read some of those rankings.

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Why do you immediately disregard something that doesn't mesh with public consensus? Their prediction system is generally more accurate than public perception, so maybe they know something that we don't?

And it's really not all that different anyway, except Tampa and New Orleans, which they explained. The one team that stands out is Chicago, and as they explain in the book, historically it is extremely difficult for a defense to play at their level for multiple years in a row. Almost every defense of the last ten years that has been that good regressed the next year - basic regression to the mean.

If their defense does in fact regress, they are an average team because we all know their offense is ~average. For them to remain at the top of the NFC, their defense will have to become a historical outlier. I think they can become that outlier, so we'll see.