silentbob's Week 3 player props thread

[silentbob]

I made three bets the other night. The lines have moved down for two of these, so anyone considering tailing should be extra-careful.

Amani Toomer under 60.5 receiving yards at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line is currently at 58.5. Toomer has averaged 45 per game in the last two seasons. I know Plexiglass is a game-time decision, but even if he doesn't play my understanding is that Shockey would get more looks. Also, the Giants suck on defense and I don't expect them to have the ball very much given the Gibbs tendency to grind the clock.

Brett Favre under 24.5 pass completions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line has moved to 23.5. Similar rationale applies here. I think the Packers will need to pass, but San Diego will own the ball for so long that Favre won't have a chance to rack up enough attempts (for example, the current line on LT2 carries is 23.5). Also, I don't think Favre will have as much time to pass as Brady did last Sunday night.

Bernard Berrian under 80.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit (Bodog). Yes, Berrian is primarily a deep target. This is a Rex Grossman fade. My only hesitation is that the Dallas defense has given up some big-time yardage to opposing WRs so far this season.

Dallas Clark under 52.5 receiving yards at -130 for 1 unit (Bodog). Clark has averaged in the low 30s per game throughout the last two years. He's also hurt. Even if he plays, I don't think Peyton will target him much.

Good luck.

YTD: 2-6, -4.18 units