Trade ideas...lets see what we can come up with

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I focus on only a few select commodities in my trading.......orange juice, sugar, corn, soybeans, heating oil being the frontrunners.

It appears to this observer that this years corn crop is not going to produce the bushels that many are expecting due to the increased planted acres.


Test weight is a big factor in yield, and if corn runs out of moisture before blacklayer, test weights and grain quality goes down. Test weights can hurt final yield quite a bit. Last year we got good rains starting at the end of July and through the month of August. Test weight and rain quality on corn was quite good, and corn yields surprised everyone to up side of expectations. This year corn is running low on moisture, temperatures are higher, and rain appears not to be coming. Again, I think most yields will be lower than the SWAG's people take counting kernals.

[/ QUOTE ]

to what degree is this priced into (or not priced into) corn futures?

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question and one I could only make a guess on.

I would think not as much as many other factors, but it should. That's why I like trading corn futures, as I follow this market naturally, meaning I'm following it for different reasons other than investing in futures.

[/ QUOTE ]

good, so then answer me this then:

you mentioned some survey that takes into account kernels (by manual or other counting) and then projects yields based on this...do you have the release date of that survey?

if so, then can you supply a graph of the price of corn's applicable futures price level before, during and after the release of that survey?

can i see that data daily for months before and after?

that is the first step towards answering that question. looking at how the price responded (or didn't respond) to the release of that kind of data.

did that response decay despite NO other data being released?

if so, then there may be some degree of your thoughts already priced into the market.

you can't just randomly guess at things in this type of analysis, you have to systematically approach your thoughts with data and a sound logical process.

our goal is to see to what degree or extent, the SW-whatever kernel count is taken as literal expectations by the market by how the prices responded to it and the release of other pertinent info (i.e. weather estimations, actual weather realizations, oil price, acrage adjustments, preliminary yield estimates, etc.)

looking at the timing of the release of those data and plotting them on a graph will give us a preilminary idea of whats going on.

then we can go for there,
Barron