PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 1)

[PokerFink]

Not exactly a banner week for the NFC’s top tier, but all three teams should rebound with easier games in Week 2. For the most part, things played out as expected in Week 1. I don’t jump to conclusions after one game, so there isn’t much bouncing around this week except New York and St. Louis falling due to injuries. However, I am looking forward to the obligatory “[insert team] is ranked too low because they crushed [insert bad team] this week and are 1-0 while [insert better team] is 0-1” arguments.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are PROJECTIVE, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

NFC Week 1 Rankings

<font color="blue">1. CHICAGO (0-1) </font><font color="red"></font>: An impressive Tommie Harris led the defense, which looked as good as ever in holding LDT to just 25 yards on 17 carries. Unfortunately for the Bears, the running game was anemic against the outstanding San Diego defensive front, as Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson combined for just 80 yards on 26 carries with two fumbles. And if that wasn’t enough, the backs struggled in pass protection as well – Benson seemed responsible for the Shaun Phillips sack in the first quarter when Grossman got rocked. Grossman himself was mediocre (12/23-145-0-1), and couldn’t generate nearly enough through the air to bail out his backs. The Bears also lost FS Mike Brown and DT Dusty Dvoracek for the season; Brown is a Probowl caliber player, but Chicago is used to playing without him. NEXT: vs. Kansas City.

<font color="blue">2. PHILADELPHIA (0-1) </font><font color="red"></font>: Under constant pressure from an excellent Green Bay front seven , McNabb (15/33-184-1-1) looked mobile but inaccurate and ineffective. The offense looked sharp for several drives in the middle of the game, but that streak was book ended by a miserable start and finish. The defense, meanwhile, put on a tremendous performance, holding Green Bay to just 215 yards and three field goals. The Eagles outgained and generally outplayed the Packers, only to lose in excruciating fashion on a pair of muffed punts and a last second field goal. They need to find a punt returner (Reno Mahe?) and forget this loss stat, because a big divisional primetime game looms. NEXT: vs. Washington.

<font color="blue">3. NEW ORLEANS (0-1) </font><font color="red"></font>: My god what a pounding. Apparently, Jason David has never seen a post pattern. Furthermore, despite being a former Colt, he is unaware that Harrison and Wayne are fast. And run post patterns. Ye gods. On offense, the Saints spent the whole night doing exactly the opposite of what you’re supposed to do against the Colts. Indy commits too much to the pass rush, meaning you should run draws. Instead, the Saints ran right at them. Indy has a group of fast linebackers, meaning they cover well laterally. So the Saints spent the evening throwing laterally into the flat, only to watch Indy swarm and make the tackle. I thought the Saints had some excellent misdirection plays (see below) which generally worked very well. But their overall offensive gameplan was very poor. Result: blowout. NEXT: @ Tampa Bay.

<font color="blue">4. SEATTLE (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: No surprise here as Seattle easily dispatched an overmatched Tampa Bay squad. Shaun Alexander racked up 107 yards and a touchdown, but did so on 27 carries for a poor 3.9 average. He can’t maintain that workload, so look for Maurice Morris to get more than three carries in the coming weeks. NEXT: @ Arizona.

<font color="blue">5. GREEN BAY (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: Defense is as good as advertised; Aaron Kampman and the front seven got after McNabb all day, constantly forcing him out of the pocket. While they recorded only one sack, they applied constant pressure, and McNabb was unable to run for first downs or improvise big pass plays outside the pocket. LB Nick Barnett had an outstanding game. The defense will keep the Pack in the hunt all year, but the offense must improve on its poor showing. NEXT: @ New York Giants.

<font color="blue">6. SAN FRANSISCO (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: Well, an ugly win is still a win. The Niners were held to under 200 yards of offense and Alex Smith was a miserable 15 of 31 (48.4%) for just 128 yards (4.1ypa). But the revamped defense played well and it was just enough. The offense should put on a much better show next week against a poor Rams defense. NEXT: @ St. Louis.

<font color="blue">7. CAROLINA (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: A solid first showing, as DeRunningBacks (DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams) pounded out 156 yards on 32 carries (4.9ypc) while Jake Delhomme was an efficient 18/27-201-3-0 (125 rating). Even better, the defense shut down Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger. With Houston, Atlanta and Tampa Bay up next, Carolina should start at least 3-1, but it won’t mean anything if they can’t beat New Orleans in Week 5. NEXT: vs. Houston.

<font color="blue">8. WASHINGTON (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: Like Carolina, Washington put together a solid if unspectacular opening performance. Jason Campbell struggled – if you take away the fluke hail mary catch, he was just 11 of 20 (55%) for 168 yards (8.4ypa), but also threw two interceptions and took two sacks. Portis and Betts combined for 157 yards on 34 carries while the Washington defense gave a good effort, especially against the run, and that was enough to squeak it out. NEXT: @ Philadelphia.

<font color="blue">9. DALLAS (1-0) </font><font color="red"></font>: Tony Romo (15/24-345-4-1) had plenty of time to throw, and looked extremely sharp in picking apart the new but unimproved New York secondary. Next week we will see what he can do against an NFL-caliber defensive line. But despite Wade Phillips’ aggressive scheme, the Dallas defensive front generated very little pass rush of their own against a mediocre New York offensive line, allowing Eli to nearly match Romo in this shootout. Roy Williams was a few steps behind Burress on the long touchdowns (as usual) although it’s impossible to tell from TV whether he was actually responsible for deep coverage. And finally, Marion Barber III was clearly better than Julius Jones last year, and looked better than him again tonight. Why does Jones get the bulk of the carries? NEXT: @ Miami.

<font color="blue">10. MINNESOTA (1-0) </font><font color="red">*UP 3* </font>: The run defense was as stout as usual, but like last year, their secondary lags behind – even Joey Harrington found some success when he wasn’t throwing the ball to Kevin Williams. On offense, Adrian Peterson’s big debut (20 touches, 163 yards, 5.4ypc and a TD) paced a decent attack. It was more than enough this week, and it could be enough for the next two weeks as well. But when Week 4 and Green Bay roll around, the Minnesota offense will have to be much improved. NEXT: @ Detroit.

<font color="blue">11. ARIZONA (0-1) </font><font color="red">*UP 1* </font>: No matter what year it is, no matter who the coach is, Arizona always seems to find new and innovative ways to lose football games. Same old Cardinals. Despite losing, Arizona moves up by default because of injuries elsewhere. NEXT: vs. Seattle.

<font color="blue">12. NEW YORK (0-1) </font><font color="red">*DOWN 2* </font>: Different year, same story for the Giants: injuries and a dreadful secondary. The New York defensive backs spent way too much time watching Romo’s eyes while the Dallas receivers ran wide open over the middle of the field. Brandon Jacobs hurt his knee, but boom-or-bust RB Derrick Ward showed an excellent burst through the hole. Osi Umenyiora went down as well, and the New York pass rush went down with him. Mathias Kiwanuka looked lost in coverage as a LB, and it would behoove the Giants to move him back to end to replace Osi. And if that wasn’t enough, Eli will miss a month with a strained shoulder. With several tough games coming up and Jared Lorenzen under center, the Giants are facing an extremely difficult start. NEXT: vs. Green Bay.

<font color="blue">13. ST. LOUIS (0-1) </font><font color="red">*DOWN 2* </font>: Steven Jackson had a miserable game, just 61 yards on 19 touches (3.2 avg) with two killer fumbles. Meanwhile, last year’s first round pick CB Tye Hill got left in the dust by Steve Smith. Much more important is that Orlando Pace is out for the season with a torn up shoulder. I said last week that if St. Louis loses Pace or Timmerman it will be a long season, and losing Pace in Week 1 is their worst nightmare. NEXT: vs. San Francisco.

<font color="blue">14. DETROIT (1-0) </font><font color="red">*UP 1* </font>: Jon Kitna (27/36-289-3-2) and the Detroit aerial attack had their way with a good Oakland defense while new running back Tatum Bell pounded out 87 yards and a TD on 15 carries (5.8ypc). If the Detroit offense can do this against Oakland, they can do it against anyone. The problem is that if Josh McCown and the Oakland offense can rack up 375 yards and 21 points, what will Donovan McNabb do to them in two weeks time? NEXT: vs. Minnesota.

<font color="blue">15. TAMPA BAY (0-1) </font><font color="red">*DOWN 1* </font>: New quarterback Jeff Garcia did his thing and was reasonably effective (19/27-201-0-0), but the offense sputtered out in the red zone and managed only six points. It wasn’t nearly enough to save the Tampa defense, which just isn’t what it used to be. NEXT: vs. New Orleans.

<font color="blue">16. ATLANTA (0-1) </font><font color="red"></font>: Nice sleeper pick Bill Simmons. While Joey Heisman completed a solid 23 of 32 for 199 yards, he was sacked six times and threw a pair of touchdowns to Minnesota. Warrick Dunn (22 carries, 55 yards, 2.5ypc) is running out of gas, so it’s time to give Jerious Norwood (5 carries, 33 yards, 6.6ypc) a much bigger share of the work. NEXT: @ Jacksonville.

Notes

My favorite play of the week came five minutes into the second quarter of the Saints-Colts game. With the score tied 7-7, New Orleans faced 3rd and 4. They lined up with a single running back and two tight ends split slightly off the line. On the snap, Aaron Stecker stayed in to block for what appeared to be a pass play, and then turned left and took a delayed hand-off from Brees on a quasi end-around to the left. Meanwhile, the offensive line executed a good fake pass block before the center and left guard climbed to the second level. As Stecker turned the corner he found his two man blocking convey and plenty of space for a 13 yard gain and easy first down. Sweet play.

I also loved seeing the Eagles twice run my favorite short yardage play, the counter pitch. The QB fakes a handoff to the fullback as the offensive line blocks one way, and then pitches it to the running back going the other way. I love misdirection plays, especially for short yardage, because the backside defensive end rarely keeps contain. The play converted two first downs for the Eagles.

[PokerFink]

Let's do some polls.

[Triumph36]

Good writeup as always - you'll be sure to get less responses than some others because your rankings are usually dead on.

I do think Dallas should be rated a tad higher - I can't imagine they don't fix the secondary problem somehow.

[Anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
I do think Dallas should be rated a tad higher - I can't imagine they don't fix the secondary problem somehow.


[/ QUOTE ]

His name's Terence, and it all depends [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do think Dallas should be rated a tad higher - I can't imagine they don't fix the secondary problem somehow.


[/ QUOTE ]

His name's Terence, and it all depends [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting Newman back will certainly help, but from what we saw on Monday night, Dallas not only has serious problems in the secondary but no pass rush. That is not a good offensive line they were playing. If they can't get to Eli, they have no chance of getting to McNabb.

EDIT: The other thing about Dallas, they have a HARD schedule. If you believe that Philly is better than Dallas (most people do and so does the FO projections) it only makes Dallas' schedule that much harder. They might be better than the 9th team in the NFC, but with that schedule, they aren't making the playoffs.

[Spellmen]

I think they have the tools to get a decent pass rush. Ware is a beast. Even with Newman back I don't really like their secondary, but I think their defense will be at least average

[Vyse]

NO, SEA aren't close to those spots, wtf?

EDIT: Is it any surprise Assani once again proves how little he knows about football?

[Vyse]

Philly, GB, Chi, Car, and then you can group NO / DAL / WAS in the next tier.

What's clear though is that the NFC is really bad.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Good writeup as always - you'll be sure to get less responses than some others because your rankings are usually dead on.

I do think Dallas should be rated a tad higher - I can't imagine they don't fix the secondary problem somehow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much agree. I'd move Seattle to 2, but I agree with the teams IN the top 4. I liked your Bill Simmons comment. I'm one of his few fans on this board and even I found his Atlanta placement a bit loony. Also, Sports Gal is already 2 games up on him this year. Poor guy.

[Spellmen]

I agree with your rankings for the most part. I can see why some think Philly is too high, but in general your rules state there won't be any big movers week to week. Philly dominated defensively and if it weren't for atrocious special teams could have held GB to 3-6 points. McNabb looked lost all game, but he was mobile and didn't look hampered so I expect him to play a lot better in the next few weeks

I think the bottom feeders are ranked well, but expect Detroit to move up a few spots in the next few weeks, especially if Eli misses significant time

I could also see SF being bumped down. They certainly didn't look like a wildcard team yesterday, but I'm hoping a lot of that was early season rust.

Is Pace definitely out for the season? I know that was a possibility but hadn't seen a definitive injury report confirming that yet