should i move all in the AA on the river or not...

[Hath0r]

Seat 5: Hath0r (29.87)
Seat 6: player2 (30.75)
Hath0r [Ad, As]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Hath0r Raise to 1.25
player2 Call 1.25
*** Flop(Board): *** : [Jd, 3d, 8d]
Hath0r Bet 3.50
player2 Call 3.50
*** Turn(Board): *** : [Jd, 3d, 8d, 4s]
Hath0r Bet 7.00
player2 Call 7.00
*** River(Board): *** : [Jd, 3d, 8d, 4s, 10h]
Hath0r All-in 18.12
player2 Call 18.12

so my first imprssion was that the guy has fldraw, but i know he can call my bet with AJ KJ Qj ... maybe the turn allin was a mistake... the guy had set of 3.

[rothko]

flop bet should be way less, like 2.25. then, you're turn bet will be smaller and on the river i c/c.

[YanP]

[ QUOTE ]
flop bet should be way less, like 2.25. then, you're turn bet will be smaller and on the river i c/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Genz]

If you think your hand is good on the flop and you can profitably play a huge pot against the guy, then the line is good, since turn and river are unlikely to have helped him with a hand that he calls big bets with. Since you have the Ad, I don't mind making smaller bets, controlling the pot size and letting him bluff on the river or bet his 2nd best hand against your "obvious" draw.

[Pokey]

So what you're saying is that you think villain was calling a big preflop raise and a huge flop overbet with a KJo-type hand that turned into TP2K and a one-card draw to the second-nut flush? Without stats on the opponent that's a dangerously bad assumption. It sounds to me like you're trying to justify your play by putting villain on the hand range you WANT him to have, rather than the hand range he's LIKELY to have. That's an expensive mistake to make at the tables.

Without knowing what kind of villain "player2" is, there's no way I can begin to analyze this hand: a "call, call, call" line doesn't really reveal much. If he's a TAG or a maniac this action means something completely different than if he's a fish or a calling station. As a general rule, against an unknown I give them the benefit of the doubt and play it safe.

I'd probably bet $1.5 to $2 on the flop, check the turn, and if villain checked the turn I make a "desperation bluff" on the river that is actually a value bet. If villain wakes up on the turn, I probably call and then check/call the river. AA is nice, but it's never the nuts. On this board there's much to fear, so I want to keep the pot relatively small. Remember: AA usually wins a small pot or loses a big one. Don't make this into a big pot that you're unlikely to win.