200NL 2Pair vs Below Avg Player

[viper930]

Villain in this hand looks pretty horrible, checking in at 35/4/2. Havent seen him pummel the pot like he does on the river. Standard river play is a fold at FR, but I had a ton of trouble putting him on a hand. Discussion on all streets welcome.

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
8 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
UTG+1: $42.60
MP1: $50.15
MP2: $74.90
CO: $245.70
Hero (BTN): $398.85
SB: $200
BB: $189.9
UTG: $353.4

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3, 8 players)
UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $5

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($15, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>, UTG calls $11

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($37, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $27</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $54</font>, Hero calls $27

<font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($145, 3 players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $128</font> Hero...

I'll bet this flop sometimes and check through it other times looking to get 1 street later or pick off a turn or river bluff. Anyways, bet it this time and hit a nice turn.

Turn bet and call of the minraise are pretty standard imo, but the river bet is hella confusing. Could he be overvaluing an AK type hand here / betting in desperation? Could he have hit an A4 kind of hand?

[ronaldann]

is this called the Baluga Theorem? I dont think he's bluffing once he CR turn. When he valueleads river it becomes even clearer that you're beat. Pretty easy fold actually.

[D.L.M.]

preflop lol. you should have waited for q5 off in my opinion.
i would have checked the flop. to control the pot and becuase 2nd pair no kicker is garbage. uhhh accually this hand is soo god awful ill just leave it at fold preflop(boyeee)

[Berge20]

You've represented a big ace or better and he seems to be completely saying "I've got that beat"

He's not CR a turn and leading a river very often, if ever, with anything you beat. Set of ducks seem most likely

[kurto]

Isn't this also standard set play?

[Falc]

It doesn't state the action for UTG preflop but i guess he limped. Does he go to showdown alot? I'll probably fold it pf with such a loose limper (Q4o is pretty much garbage if you're facing a loose bad player).

Anyway, flop bet is fine and so is checking. I'll play the same on turn but when he jams the river like that and without any postflop reads I'll fold this. It looks like AQ or a set to me.

[GrandmaStabone]

I'll go from the flop on, and leave preflop alone.

Betting the flop and checking it are both pretty close, IMO. By betting you can take it down right there a lot of the time (which isn't a bad result with this bs hand), you are getting information (if you check and he bets the turn it is harder to put him on a hand) and you are charging/getting value from a draw. By checking you are controlling the pot with a really weak one pair hand and getting value when you pick off a small bluff on the turn or river. So whatever, you bet and lets go from there.

He calls, so I would put him on a FD, some kind of ace, some kind of queen, maybe 2 pair or a set. I'm not even going to bother to count these up, as it is sufficed to say that he has a really wide range.

The turn is a blank, and he check-minraises. I doubt very much, no matter how bad he is, that he is playing one pair this way. If he had a strong ace, 90% of the time you are hearing about it on the flop. His aggro is reasonable, so a call-checkraise with one pair is very unlikely. It is the Baluga theorem, which IIRC says that if you encounter a raise on the turn 1 pair is rarely good. But you don't have one pair, you have 2 - which is why I find this hand interesting. If when you encounter a raise on the turn one pair is most likely beat, then logically your opponent has 2 pair+. Since you basically have the weakest 2 pair on the board, even though objectively your hand is fairly strong, in this case it is basically a bluff-catcher (I'd say 90% of the time +).

You are getting ~4-1. Are the chances that he is making a move (or playing one pair very strangely) greater than 20%? That is a personal call, and largely read dependent, but you do still have to deal with the river (which is something to consider).

On the river he just about pots it. He really feels strong here, as that bet looks like pure value to me. You said you hadn't seen him get out of line on the river, so I am even more inclined to think this is a strong hand. If I hadn't dropped it earlier (and I would have), I would drop it now.

[GrandmaStabone]

Aw hell, I thought villain was in the BB. The fact that he limped makes his range somewhat narrower (stronger).

[MyTurn2Raise]

Fold to the turn c/r despite the turn card helping your hand.

AQ, A4s, A2s, and sets must make up 80% of the villain's hand range. AK is a possibility, but not enough of one to call off.


preflop is debatable
It's a good blind/limpers steal if the UTG doesn't call very often when it's raised and the blinds are tight.
Also, ok if UTG folds to c-bets something like 80%+.
His hand range is pretty big playing 35/4/2.

I would bet the flop as well. He's a loose-passive and not likely to bluff into you with a worse hand. He is more likely to fold a QJ type hand, etc.

[nation]

fold preflop. fold turn in my opinion as played. yes you're getting 4-1 but its not good enough to improve. he's SO passive that theres very little chance he's playing tricky with a worse hand. in all likelihood you are in very very bad shape.

river is a pretty clear fold.