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#1
11-29-2007, 11:00 AM
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AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is LHE
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls. Flop: (12 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks. Turn: (6 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.06 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero ?? I have AK overs, so I figure, according to SSHE, that I have only 3 effective outs. I'm facing a pot of 7.5BB, with ~15:1 pot odds. Even if I increase my outs to 5 outs, I need pot odds of 8.2:1, which is still inadequate. Do I call here, and will it be +EV? I'm unsure in this case cos there's a player who's already all-in. Range of BB is wide, he could be holding a small pair, or just caught a piece of the flop. 
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#3
11-29-2007, 11:45 AM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is LHE
I usually bet out on the flop. You know the UTG is going to showdown with his shortstack. When you bet out the BB will fold more often because he knows he gets to see your cards at showdown.
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#4
11-29-2007, 11:50 AM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is LHE
[ QUOTE ]
I think I may have missed an important concept here. Why are there only 3 outs as opposed to 6. 3 Aces 3 Kings? [/ QUOTE ] I believe that OP is assuming that one of the other players has made one pair on the flop with an ace or king kicker. I don't think that three outs is accurate. Usually with this board I would give myself closer to 5 discounted outs.
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#5
11-29-2007, 11:56 AM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is L
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think I may have missed an important concept here. Why are there only 3 outs as opposed to 6. 3 Aces 3 Kings? [/ QUOTE ] I believe that OP is assuming that one of the other players has made one pair on the flop with an ace or king kicker. I don't think that three outs is accurate. Usually with this board I would give myself closer to 5 discounted outs. [/ QUOTE ] On such a drawy board? I think 3 is pretty ok... And it's not the ace kicker that's the worry (at least I hope not), it's the general estimation, that TP will not be good here more than ~50% at SD.
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#6
11-29-2007, 12:48 PM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is LHE
Like always it depends on your opponent. You should call if you think BB is the type to bluff a turn after it's been checked through with overs or a Straight draw / Flush draw etc..I think the difference in EV between calling and folding here is very small. If you're unsure just remember your essentially playing a weak draw here and fold.
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#8
11-29-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is L
[ QUOTE ]
I think I may have missed an important concept here. Why are there only 3 outs as opposed to 6. 3 Aces 3 Kings? [/ QUOTE ] OP said that he got the idea from SSHE. SSHE recommends that you count overcards as 1.5 outs each because somebody might have already hit two pair or a set and even if you hit your overcard, it may not put you ahead of villain. I don't really agree with SSHE, though, and I think it depends a lot on the situation. Sometimes 1.5 outs per overcard is a good estimate, sometimes it actually is closer to 3 outs per overcard! You just have to use your reads on your opponents and assign a hand range to determine the proper number of outs.
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#9
11-29-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is L
Well...I think part of the idea is that an ace that falls may be counterfeited as there's a good chance that at least one of the other three villains has an ace. Isn't there something that says that a KQ overcard hand may be superior to the AK because of this?
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#10
11-29-2007, 10:17 PM
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Re: AKo on turn, w 1 donking in EP& 1 player all-in, and yes this is L
[ QUOTE ]
On such a drawy board? I think 3 is pretty ok... And it's not the ace kicker that's the worry (at least I hope not), it's the general estimation, that TP will not be good here more than ~50% at SD. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this board is that drawy. I don't see how hitting one of our six outs here doesn't give us the best hand at least 80% of the time.
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