200NL - horrible spot with bottom set

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
You beat AK! There's something! ...But everything else beats you. That's impressively crappy.

[/ QUOTE ]

villian shouldn't have KK, JJ or TT here, QQ seems fairly unlikely, as its getting [censored] odds on the turn

AK is 3times more likely than AA from potential combinations(provided both play the same)

[centgas]

[ QUOTE ]
no matter what u have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends how much of a thinking player I think they are.

[cs3]

why is everybody so scared of the Q? do you put villain on exactly KQ here? if hes really that solid, then hes calling BB 3bets vs button steals with way more than big pocket pairs PF, correct?
arent all the 2 pair hands way more likely?
just push the river. hes only got ~115 left so hes calling with pretty much everything. id be more pissed off if i ch/folded vs TJ than if i pushed and got called by a Q.

[Pete H]

The reason I'd check the river is I don't think he'll call with a worse hand or fold a better hand.

I really doubt villain is calling with 2 pair on that river and he'd probably call with any set because nobody can fold a set.

This problem is solved by 3-betting more pf and then betting enough on the flop that you could go allin on the turn.

[HoldEmNewby]

I'm not folding this for half a pot bet in a button versus blind battle. He only has 116.40 left I just push the river. Don't check and give him the chance to check down his 2 pair.

[mattnxtc]

the turn brought about so many draws that i hate your bet... I would think you would want to make it much closer to 100 so taht if he does have a queen combo draw or queen+pair that he dosnt feel like he is getting the right odds to call

[carlosj]

villain has 1/2 pot size bet left in stack. Easy push.

[HoldEmNewby]

[ QUOTE ]
the turn brought about so many draws that i hate your bet... I would think you would want to make it much closer to 100 so taht if he does have a queen combo draw or queen+pair that he dosnt feel like he is getting the right odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[kaah]

go for the cryingcall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Hattifnatt]

Its $117 left to bet in a $247 pot. Just put it in and hope he doesnt have you beat.

Check/calling have no merits unless you have a very good reason to think he will bet (for value or bluff) here with many hands you beat but fold if you bet.

Check/folding is out of the question.

If you was deeper a bet/fold might be a good idea but definitely not now.

Also, reraise some more or call preflop.