NL100: Top two gets raised on turn, whats his range?

[HitmanHaydon]

Villian is 10.1/6.2/5.3 over about 750 hands.

I rule out a set here as he's raising pre, and even if he had 77 and just called he'd raise the flop.

He's in the BB so he could have picked up an odd 2 pair, but I think most of his range is a flush draw, which has turned into a combo with the 5.
Does everyone agree with this? With his high AF do you think it would be more likely he'd just raise the flop with a draw?

So given that reasoning should this be a push?


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $104
Hero (SB): $99
BB: $101.80
UTG: $210.25
UTG+1: $211.05
MP1: $108.15
MP2: $18
CO: $115.45

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, CO folds, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3, MP2 folds, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($13) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [ 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $26</font>, BTN folds, Hero?

[SABR42]

I think K7, J7, or K5 are very likely.

I'd probably just call though. He's probably not going broke with a lower two pair in a limped pot.

[HitmanHaydon]

Do you not think a raise would be more likely if he'd floped 2 pair?

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you not think a raise would be more likely if he'd floped 2 pair?

[/ QUOTE ]
Tight players often wait for a blank turn to raise two pair in a limped pot.

[AllTheCheese]

Jam. Because,

1) We're OOP and we'll wind up open-shoving river(which looks just as strong)
2) He's pretty heavily invested to be laying down K7
3) There are a lot of river scare cards.

[HitmanHaydon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you not think a raise would be more likely if he'd floped 2 pair?

[/ QUOTE ]
Tight players often wait for a blank turn to raise two pair in a limped pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. In that case, would a checkraise be too much on a blank river? Better to just bet out and get him to call what we want instead of what get wants to bet?
His AF was fairly high on all streets, so I reckon he's value betting 2 pair when checked to on river.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. In that case, would a checkraise be too much on a blank river?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd prefer a river lead on a blank, since your hand looks like a draw, so he might check behind.

But I like your thought process.

[billzfan86]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. In that case, would a checkraise be too much on a blank river? Better to just bet out and get him to call what we want instead of what get wants to bet?
His AF was fairly high on all streets, so I reckon he's value betting 2 pair when checked to on river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a call on the turn and a check call on a blank river becuase unless hes got like a monster combo draw hes gonna pound the river when you check to him and his range is very far behind yours, with that said leading out on the river looks very strong and you wont get value, versus this oppenent hes gonna bet the river pretty hard with 77, random two pairs, or possibly missed draws (although flop play is pretty trash for that type of hand so its pretty unlikely)

the problem is there are a ton of bad river cards that shut down action, like flush cards and aces and 9s arent great cards to see either, anyways regardless of river im prolly check calling