Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?

[James.]

hand 1

online 5handed 3/6 or 5/10. i forget.

i raise 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO, the mostly unknown but sort of loose(seeming) SB calls, BB folds.

Flop(5sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he calls.

Turn(3.5bb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he calls.

River(5.5bb): Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he checkraises, i fold?

hand two

online fullring 3/6 or 5/10. i forget.

no reads. first few orbits so i don't even have my overlay up yet.

UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, CO limps, i raise 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button, sb folds, bb calls, limpers call.

Flop(10.5sb): Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checked to me and i check.

Turn(5.25bb): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, CO folds, i raise, BB calls, UTG 3bets, i cap, BB calls, UTG calls.

River(17.25bb): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, UTG calls, i fold? closing the action getting 19-1.

my wife was sitting next to me for both of these hands. one she said she would fold and the other she said she would call. probably obvious which was which. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[BadBigBabar]

i could fold the 1st given your play but i'd prefer to check behind the river.

i'd call the second without a second thought.

[reutel]

The pot is small in the first and you are beat.


I am never raising pf in the second hand, and I am never folding on the river in that spot. If the caller on the turn raised, and it was two back to you (not possible in this hand) I might fold.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
i could fold the 1st given your play but i'd prefer to check behind the river.

i'd call the second without a second thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

My exact thoughts...exactly. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

I had a very similar hand.

ME 66

PF 4 or 5 (I can't remember) callers including me

Flop 5sb [5 8 6]
UTG Bet
All Call (coordinated board and lots of callers makes me think someone is already there)
Turn 5bb [5 8 6 9]
UTG Bet
Call to Me (with one more to act)
I fold

I was picking up tells from UTG most of the night. Most of them were low confidence tells. In this hand he displayed none of them. I got a few high confidence tells in this hand but they were subtle.
After the over calls I though I had to be dead, well almost. I had 9 outs for a boat and 1 more for quads, but I figured a raise war was about to start.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
I had a very similar hand.

ME 66

PF 4 or 5 (I can't remember) callers including me

Flop 5sb [5 8 6]
UTG Bet
All Call (coordinated board and lots of callers makes me think someone is already there)
Turn 5bb [5 8 6 9]
UTG Bet
Call to Me (with one more to act)
I fold

I was picking up tells from UTG most of the night. Most of them were low confidence tells. In this hand he displayed none of them. I got a few high confidence tells in this hand but they were subtle.
After the over calls I though I had to be dead, well almost. I had 9 outs for a boat and 1 more for quads, but I figured a raise war was about to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't fold that turn.

[elindauer]

First fold is straight-forward. In fact, given your river betting range, you can probably fold this unexploitably, meaning that folding to a raise there is probably the default play. Given the scary board and the expectation from villain that you will be calling with an ace quite a lot, I think you should fold more than game theory would suggest, not less. Clear fold.

Hand 2. You probably hold the worst hand in your turn capping range, unless you are capable of capping the turn on a draw (are you? not many are). Given that, from a game theory POV, your fold may be right a fraction of the time.

That said, I think you should call. I see people river 2-pair and think it's the nuts when they are clearly beaten way too often to lay this down. Sure, you can lose to UTG playing a higher set very nicely here, but I think you win more than 1 time in 20.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're joking! If you are though, I don't get it.

confused,
Eric

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

I figured I'd have to pay 4 bets to see the river. I was right. I guess I was wrong to fold with that in mind, yes?

Well...let me try to break it down. Maybe I'll understand better.

8bb and 10 outs if the next player folds
Capped 4 ways (not including me) 23bb/4bb to call = 5.75:1
Ok so it was a mistake... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Capped 3 ways 17bb/4bb to call = 4.25
Capped 2 ways 13bb/4 to call = 3.25
This is where it becomes marginal.

Based on my read it seemed right at the time. I couldn't work the math out that quickly in my head. It just seemed like it was going to get expensive to draw.

Say that I call all of these bets?
What do I do on the river when a brick hits and it is...
Bet, call, raise, Me?

[elindauer]

I'm not sure why you are so convinced that it's going to be capped on the turn. That seems way too pessimistic.

[ QUOTE ]
Say that I call all of these bets?
What do I do on the river when a brick hits and it is...
Bet, call, raise, Me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold? Is this a trick question? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]