$50nl bottom set monotone flop your play?

[wingchunflush]

villain is 19/11 likes to check raise. Should I be folding this preflop after being raised? How do you play this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($48.25)
SB ($52.55)
BB ($42.50)
Hero ($93.50)
MP ($48.50)
CO ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $5.50.

Flop: ($15.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $13</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $41</font>, Hero calls $28.

Turn: ($97.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($97.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $97.75

[tarheeljks]

fold pf. otherwise, this is standard. sorry you lost

[wingchunflush]

LOL who said I cant post a hand that I win. Thought it was an interesting situation. This guy I know has no problem playing big pots, so doesnt that give me the implied odds to call to hit my set?

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy I know has no problem playing big pots, so doesnt that give me the implied odds to call to hit my set?

[/ QUOTE ]Fold preflop. Calling is bad bad bad.

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL who said I cant post a hand that I win. Thought it was an interesting situation. This guy I know has no problem playing big pots, so doesnt that give me the implied odds to call to hit my set?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you won fine, that's not the point. this guy's 3bet range is crushing you. if you were both deep it would be a different story.

[wingchunflush]

Maybe I have been playing live too much. If I am pretty sure this guy will pay me off with AA if i hit my set why do I not call? I am almost 200bb deep

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have been playing live too much. If I am pretty sure this guy will pay me off with AA if i hit my set why do I not call? I am almost 200bb deep

[/ QUOTE ]

your stack size is irrelevant b/c he has less than you. you effectively have 97bbs.

[wingchunflush]

ok that still kind of deep right?

[tarheeljks]

no. it's &lt;full buy-in

[molotom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have been playing live too much. If I am pretty sure this guy will pay me off with AA if i hit my set why do I not call? I am almost 200bb deep

[/ QUOTE ]

your stack size is irrelevant b/c he has less than you. you effectively have 97bbs.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a leak to call here. It's tempting to look just at the odds of hitting your set, but there is more involved. Significantly, he will occasionally suck-out or flop set-over-set.

Let's assume he has AA, and is going to shove any flop. You call on any flop with a 7. Let the size of the remaining stacks going to the flop be 1 unit.
x denotes any card that is not an A or 7.
P(7xx Flop) = 2*44c2 / 48c3 = 0.109389454
P(A7x Flop) = 2*2*44c1 / 48c3 = 0.010175763

On the 7xx flop, your equity is about 90% (He can catch an A or a 4-flush)
Ev (7xx Flop) = (1) * (90%) - (1) * (10%) = 0.80

On the A7x flop, your equity is about 5%
Ev (A7x Flop) = -0.90

I'm going to ignore the instances of quads (about 50x less likely that a set)

Ev (seeing a flop) = 0.109389454 * 0.80 - 0.010175763 * 0.90
= 0.078353

1/0.078353 = 12.76269185

So even in this idealised case, your implied odds are 11.7:1 (note this is not enough to call in OP)

If we put him on a more realistic (yet still conservative) range of AK,QQ+ it's even worse. He will not stack off with QQ,KK on ace-high flops, cutting your implied odds some more. AK is terrible for you - the chance of both AK and 77 hitting is about 3%, so setmining is not going to work... yet you are going to lose the flops where you both miss, because even when it's obvious the flop missed AK, his range (QQ+,AK) is too strong to continue against:

Board: 9s 5h 2d
201,960 games 0.005 secs 40,392,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 5s 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.462% 60.46% 00.00% 122109 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.538% 39.54% 00.00% 79851 0.00 { 77 }

I think that even against a 3-bettor you need at least 15:1 implied odds to setmine.