$14500 grntd on FT - bubble push?

fluorescenthippo · #1 07-15-2007, 06:56 PM

two from the money i have 6500 chips blinds 250/500/50 and T6o. pot is like 1150 and its folded to me in SB. BB has 15k. on the calcs ive done its close based upon his calling range.

supair · #2 07-15-2007, 07:31 PM

Yep, if you wanna make a +EV play and were looking to win not just cash (as i assume is the case) you could shove and not be making an error at all.

Id make this call based on my likelihood of bursting the bubble within the next orbit, and my table image. If Im doctor shortypants and have been playing tight ill shove, if ive been shoving a lot and theres a micro stack or two its probably more +EV to wait. We dont really want to pay another round of blinds though.

fluorescenthippo · #3 07-15-2007, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yep, if you wanna make a +EV play and were looking to win not just cash (as i assume is the case) you could shove and not be making an error at all.

Id make this call based on my likelihood of bursting the bubble within the next orbit, and my table image. If Im doctor shortypants and have been playing tight ill shove, if ive been shoving a lot and theres a micro stack or two its probably more +EV to wait. We dont really want to pay another round of blinds though.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats basically what i was thinking. there were quite a few stacks shorter than me but i felt it was a good push. i havent played too many mtts but he made a looser call than i expected when he instacalled with QJo. obv im not playing to cash but the bubble has to be taken into account a little bit and im not sure how much impact it has. i know im pushing this 10 from the money but i felt this was closer

supair · #4 07-15-2007, 07:59 PM

yeah, especially since a lot of people have lowered their calling requirements against a shorty (m of 5 or less) considerably in the last couple of years. Back in the good old days youd never see QJ turned over here. Which has led to me waiting that extra couple of hands until Im holding Kx/Ax and can expect to get value called by hands like J10, Qx etc.

Baby Mantis · #5 07-15-2007, 11:25 PM

I would of said push as well, but after reading the post I came to the realization that you guys are right and calling requirements have been lowered. I would not of called QJo or QJs, but that is me.

fluorescenthippo · #6 07-15-2007, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would of said push as well, but after reading the post I came to the realization that you guys are right and calling requirements have been lowered. I would not of called QJo or QJs, but that is me.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea its a good call vs my range obv but not vs everyone else. im just used to sngs where they wouldnt call with that very often

ChipSpeak · #7 07-16-2007, 02:29 AM

He looked you up incredibly light... I agree, if you've seemed nitty.. shove.. if you've been active recently, especially with stacks smaller than yours out there, I think the fold here is +$EV.

chopchoi · #8 07-16-2007, 03:49 AM

I don't like it. It's +ev, but making the money is moreso.

Unless I know them to be nitty, I avoid bullying bigger stacks on the bubble, because they'll look you up lighter than a short stack will.

I don't know the structure of this tourney, but I'll assume making the money guarantees you a little bit more than your buy in, and that there are enough players left that you are certain to make the money within the next orbit.

I'm estimating all this, so my numbers may be way off, so correct me if I'm wrong. What will the typical big stack call here with? I guess top 15%. How big of a dog are you to that range? You're dominated a lot, so I'll guess 3:1. So your expected loss when called is about 4,000 chips. Your gain when he folds is 1250. So I estimate your push has a positive expectation of about 500 chips, but you're going to bust about 10% of the time. How much money are those 500 chips worth? I don't know, but probably not 10% of what you get from making the money.

sah_24 · #9 07-16-2007, 04:59 AM

i think the push isnt a bad play but im prolly foldin here on the money bubble, i make the money and then find a push spot soon if ur a lil deeper the push looks more legit and i dont think he looks u up wit qj if say u had 11k or so. I think the play should have worked u just got a lil unlucky.