25nl 6max small pocket pair heads up pot against NIT should I fold?

[wingchunflush]

I dont have alot of luck hitting sets and being OOP in a HU pot with this villan (11/8) its ok to fold right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($57.95)
UTG ($24.65)
MP ($24.15)
CO ($32.05)
Button ($4.70)
SB ($24.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: $1.35

[AJGibson]

No way would I fold this, play for set value and you will hit it one time in 8. So the implied odds makes this a very easy call, forget about luck and play the odds.

[wingchunflush]

I dont hit a set 1 in 8 no way. besides most of the time I call miss and have to c/f

[rzweig]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont hit a set 1 in 8 no way. besides most of the time I call miss and have to c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

c/f is the right move if you dont hit your set

[wingchunflush]

well we all know that. This guy is pretty tight not a station. I dont think i can get his whole stack even if i hit the 3. If i dont think he will pay me off I fold right?

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont hit a set 1 in 8 no way

[/ QUOTE ]

You will
P(hitting a set) = 1 - P(not hitting a set)
= 1 - (45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45)
= 1 - 0,88
= 0.12
Which is a 12% chance of hitting your set on the flop which is 1 time in 8, the math does not lie.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think i can get his whole stack even if i hit the 3. If i dont think he will pay me off I fold right?


[/ QUOTE ]

You don´t need to stack him when you hit your set you just need to take an average of over $7 to make this call profitable. Folding is really weak IMO

[KEW]

Small pairs are strong money makers against the "nit" in this hand..The odds of him having a big hand PF is greater then a looser player who will miss the flop..Thus he will continue on in the hand more often..Image this flop A,K,3 with villain having AK..Calling in this situation is hugely +EV..

[Marshall28]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont hit a set 1 in 8 no way.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[Sean Fraley]

Just because this guy is really tight doesn't necessarily mean that he won't pay you off. I've seen a lot of situations where really tight players seem to fall in love with pocket pairs and overpairs. I think some of these guys spend so much time waiting for really beautiful cards preflop, that they can't quickly accept it when a flop comes down that beats them.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
Just because this guy is really tight doesn't necessarily mean that he won't pay you off. I've seen a lot of situations where really tight players seem to fall in love with pocket pairs and overpairs. I think some of these guys spend so much time waiting for really beautiful cards preflop, that they can't quickly accept it when a flop comes down that beats them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly..

They also tend to think you are making a move on them..The "nit" will go to the felt nearly every time with TP and over pairs..