What if the pot odds are close?

Afval · #1 09-30-2007, 09:31 PM

11$ NL Tourney at PokerStars. 3100 entries, down to 700.

I try to consider pot odds when deciding on my play and its pretty easy if the odds and the chance on improving are widely spread but in this case it was pretty close. What would you have done and why?

Button (t11645)
SB (t3365)
Hero (t5573)
UTG (t14545)
UTG+1 (t16039)
MP1 (t14217)
MP2 (t8165)
MP3 (t3667)
CO (t12019)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t400, 2 folds, CO calls t400, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t1600) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1600, MP1 folds, CO raises to t5600, SB folds, Hero calls t3548 (All-In).

Final Pot: t12348

Sherman · #2 09-30-2007, 09:43 PM

You need 29.83% equity to break even. A flush draw alone has about 33% chance of getting there by the river. I think calling is clearly in your favor.

Edit: However your flop PSB is very silly IMO. You have very little FE against 3 villains on this flop. So your semi-bluff is more or less an attempt to get it in and hope for your flush.

Afval · #3 09-30-2007, 09:57 PM

Besides my all-in call I actually also wonder about my flop bet. I had a pretty tight image, folding to quite some raises and having the best hands in show downs. My idea was to 1) try and take the pot right there 2) not giving away a free card on a possible str8 draw.

Sherman · #4 09-30-2007, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Besides my all-in call I actually also wonder about my flop bet. I had a pretty tight image, folding to quite some raises and having the best hands in show downs. My idea was to 1) try and take the pot right there 2) not giving away a free card on a possible str8 draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a great idea, the semi-bluff, but it won't work here. You have 3 other opponents in an $11 MTT on a highly coordinated, high card board. Someone is sticking around to your PSB...it doesn't matter how tight your image was. They aren't folding this flop. Someone is calling. That means you have no FE. That means the only way for you to win this pot is to hit your flush. That means you have ~33% equity in this pot on the flop.

Afval · #5 09-30-2007, 10:06 PM

Yh I see what you mean here. If I was planning to shove it in on a bet anyways, not betting on the flop might have made the final-pot even bigger adding to my pot odds.

jay_shark · #6 09-30-2007, 10:43 PM

Let me add another thing . Your flush draw will not always be the best draw . Once you factor this into your decision , then calling is even closer to break even .

You only have some overlay if you're certain that your flush draw is the best , but this isn't always true .

hamnegger · #7 09-30-2007, 11:47 PM

that bet has no fe so id check hope for cheap draw

Cheetah · #8 10-01-2007, 03:52 PM

The pot odds are close because of the pot-sized bet on the flop. That created the difficult decision.

If you are going to call an all-in raise, it is better to push yourself to maximize FE(if any at all in this hand). Alternatively, if you bet half the pot (or better yet check), you could fold to a big re-raise easily becuase you would not have the odds.

My preference would be to check-fold to a big bet or check-call a small bet.