Live FT, big stack (relatively), bubble

[xileh]

Sorry, no HH here as the hand was live. 6 pay, 7 remain at this point.

I'm CO with A8o. Blinds are 3000/6000 at this point. Villan is MP1 with about 25000 to 30000 chippoes. I'm the 2nd chip leader at this point with 70000.

Folded to Villan who minraises, folded to me, I see 2 of the 3 behind me preparing to fold, the other doesn't look at her cards until it's her turn to act. I shove.

Not much as far as reads on villan goes, besides him folding to the same play I made a rotation ago to the other 'big' stack.

[4CardStraight]

A8o at a final table is a hand i like to push preflop first in, and fold to a raise.

Unless I have a read that a minraise is weak. Villain here is totally pot committed to call with anything he raised.

To do the math on this push, we first need to know if there are antes. It would be rare to have blinds this big without ante, with ante that will broaden villains range and also make our push have more equity.

Without ante:

We are likely to not have fold equity, any raising hand should call. If Villain is properly evaluating hands they will be raising top 15% hands, possibly more:

Hand 0: 61.535% 59.28% 02.26% 3299827 125856.50 { 77+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 38.465% 36.21% 02.26% 2015497 125857.00 { A8o }

pushing 30000 into 69000 pot with 38% equity is negative ev of T4k. bad.

Now with ante of 500 x 7 30000 into 72500 pot and we change villain to top 22% of hands.

Hand 0: 55.880% 51.77% 04.12% 1772804 141263.50 { 66+, A3s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 44.120% 40.01% 04.13% 1370091 141271.00 { A8o }

+EV of T2k chips.

So yeah, thats the difference. Antes here I overpush, no antes, I fold, unless I know any of the following: That villain is very weak and will fold to a push getting way better than 2 to 1 pot odds. That villain is massively aggressive and will be playing Any Ace (broader than 25% or so, and playing one out of four hands dealt or more), or if I can see through cards and I know they have at least one card under an 8.

4Card

[xileh]

Thanks very much.

In actuality, villan folded to my push just as he did in the previous rotation when he minraised and I came over the top... Also, no ante's.

[4CardStraight]

Nice play then.

Villain is not a very good player then. If he raises 12000 from (giving him the benefit of the doubt) 30000 stack, he has 18000 behind. With 9000 blinds, and your push, He needs to call 18000 to win 69000 or way better than 3 to 1 odds. He needs to have 26% equity in the pot to make a call, and anything he raised against any reasonable range will have that. If we try to adjust for ICM, since we are on a cash bubble, we might give his chips a 20% premium or something, so he would need 32 or 33% equity in the pot to make a call, but again anything he raises against any reasonable range we put you on should call.

Say we egregiously raised a hand like 33 or K9o or 98s. If we put you on a top 6% hand : He should call with any of these, using straight equity, or even if we give his chips a premium using ICM in some fashion.

So, net of it... We should remember this player. We should make mental notes that they are a high blind speculator, that minraise means weak, and that they often fold even when getting proper pot odds to call. All 3 of those are serious mistakes that we can exploit later.

NH

4Card