Went to SD and Won at SD question

[0524432]

Can someone point me in the direction of a thread explaining good/bad #s for these values and why? Otherwise, can someone that truly understands explain to the best of their knowledge?

[RustyBrooks]

I'm not sure how much or little detail you're looking for.

These numbers are HIGHLY dependent on VPIP, because WTSD is the percentage of times that a player went to showdown, when he saw the flop. So 20% vpip, 20% wtsd means that the player saw the showdown .2*.2 = 4% of the time, very infrequently. 50% vpip, 20% wtsd means that the player went to showdown .5*.2 = 10% of the time, fairly high.

W$SD should be more than 50% for a winning player. Probably more like the 55-58% range long term. Going to showdown less often means a high W$SD at the expense of real dollars, usually, because you are folding to worse hands some times.

I actually don't think these numbers are that useful, except for in your own play, to check if you're going to showdown too much. In my HUD I actually usually show the raw WTSD (as a percentage of hands dealt, not hands that saw flop) because I feel it's more meaningful.

[0524432]

Thanks. Can you explain all that you can about the HUD raw WTSD #s in your experience then?

[RustyBrooks]

Well, higher is worse. The higher a guy's raw wtsd is, the more he goes to showdown, the more of a calling station he tends to be. Bluff less, value bet more. Guys with low raw WTSDs are looking for reasons to fold (unless they're loose, and that just means their post-flop play is sane)

It's a very hard number to make sense of... because there are 2 factors at work here that cause low (or high) wtsds. If you have a very aggressive style, you will end a lot of hands before the river, and your WTSD will be low. It's hard to tell if someone has a low WTSD because they fold a lot, or because their opponent's fold a lot. AF doesn't help here because folding a lot raises your AF also. I don't depend on WTSD for anything, I just look for people with high or very WTSDs and exploit them.

[0524432]

Ok well, for example. What is to be made of a 24/18/3 player with with a 26 Went to SD% and 49.5 Won $ at SD?

[RustyBrooks]

Well, he probably calls down light a bit too much. My guess is he has a hard letting go of big pairs, dominated overcards, etc. Or, given his high AF, he might bet too much in situations where he is behind, and his opponent will not fold. In any case, 49.5% is a bit low on the W$SD side. Uh, this is for limit, just in case you mean NL. I don't know what good stats are for NL, you can probalby win at showdown less and still win in general. (I don't play NL for serious $)

[0524432]

yea these #s come with a 1.37 bb/100 winrate over 16.5k hands, so it's still a profitable W$ at SD but obv not much. Do you know of any threads about nl WTSD and W$atSD?

[tarheeljks]

it's also good to look at someone's win when saw flop %