Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.

Wada · #1 11-12-2007, 12:53 AM

Ok I am the button (hero), but you play the SB and put me on a hand.

UTG is a smoking crack, maniac. I have been sucking him out dry with a lot of A high hands, and betting A high for value and he calls me with K or Q high. UTG is 89/36/0.8 over 230 hands.

SB only have 5 hands so stats are worthless.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ??? And SB has ??
UTG raises, MP folds, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $3.74 (All-In), Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (10.93 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, Hero bets

What does Hero have? And SB ....???

Final Pot: 12.93 BB

I edited to take away SB hand. Initially I posted SB hand.

yourface · #2 11-12-2007, 01:09 AM

you shouldn't have a pair here

any PP or flopped pair should raise the flop, and if you picked up an ace you should raise the turn

gotta protect your hand in such a big pot

yourface · #3 11-12-2007, 01:11 AM

not to be a dick but I can't think of a single hand that you could have here that is well played

someone please correct me if I am wrong

edit: if you have a pair you should have raised somewhere. if you have a busted broadway draw you shouldn't bet the river because you beat his busted draws and he's not folding a pair, if you have anything else you shouldn't have 3bet preflop

V4P · #4 11-12-2007, 03:38 AM

AA, JJ, 77, or 66?

It just seems like you have the deck crushed, and you're not worried about SB improving.

shane88888 · #5 11-12-2007, 03:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
AA, JJ, 77, or 66?

It just seems like you have the deck crushed, and you're not worried about SB improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I think. I'm going to go with JJ.

UTG is stacking off no matter what, and you don't look like you have any interest in blowing out the sb. You get max value by not raising - he'll probably be calling down here with any pair, but a raise anywhere might have blown him out of the pot. You don't care since you probably have him drawing slim/dead. The turn card is probably great for your hand, in that you're praying for a c/r from the sb.

Oink · #6 11-12-2007, 07:32 AM

People need to stop slowplaying sets in big pots when no one is going to fold anyway.

If Hero has a set on the flop he played it like a retard. If he has AA he played like an even bigger retard.

I cant see what Hero can have here that is well played either

Oink · #7 11-12-2007, 08:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It just seems like you have the deck crushed, and you're not worried about SB improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just one part of it.

Say UTG has something retarded like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and SB has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Also say Hero has JJ.

Equities are

hero 89%
UTG 5%
SB 6%

If SB folds they are
Hero 95%
UTG 5%

So lets say hero just calls the flop and SB calls as well. Then Hero makes about .89SB of the small bet SB puts in right now.

Lets say hero raises and SB folds. Then Hero makes 6% of a 16SB pot ~ 1SB

But now assume that when Hero raises then SB calls. This is not at all unlikely. UTG then 3-bets all-in behind and Hero gets to cap and SB calls again. Now Hero wins 0.89*4 ~ 3.6SB of the bets SB puts in.

This analysis is disregarding the implied odds. Say hero just calls the flop and SB stays in. Whenever SB hits a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9, T, Q, K, A then he is gonna put in 1 more bet on the turn or maybe even raise. However, when a T, A or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes of he gets a really nice draw and if he sucks out hero will at least loose 3 BB's on the big streets.

I do believe tho that the implied odds of having SB staying in should be slightly positive. But I stronly doubt it will off set the value of hving BB putting in 4 SB's on the flop with 6% eq.

Lets take another example. Change SB's hand to 99 and Heros to 66.

Now the equities are
hero 84%
UTG 4%
SB 12%

And without SB
Hero 95%
UTG 5%

This time Hero stands to gain 11% in eq of a 16SB pot if he raises and SB folds. Even more than 1SB. And the implied odds of SB staying in arent as good as SB cannot improve to a second best hand but whenever he improves to the best hand Hero will loose at least 3 BB's on the big streets.

I am sorry. But anyone who wants to slowplay sets in big pots need to stop doing it ASAP. And if you have been doing it, you have been loosing money. We still play to win money right?

efficacy · #8 11-12-2007, 09:10 AM

awesome analysis oink!

frenchpignouf · #9 11-12-2007, 11:45 AM

very nice post oink.

If you don't have a monster, maybe QTs. Sb can fold KQ.

frenchpignouf · #10 11-12-2007, 12:21 PM

KTs is possible too.