Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Medium Stakes Limit

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:00 PM
*TT* *TT* is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Vehicle Chooser For Life!
Posts: 17,198
Default Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

I posted this on DC but I didn't get much of a response, I'd love to hear what you guys think. I had a bad weekend dropping a ton of bets so my confidence is a bit off, I adjusted the hand slightly to read more accurately.

5 handed. Utg raises - plays a lot of hands, great implied odds if I hit. Maniac calls. I look to my left and see the bb getting ready to fold, I decide to call in the sb. BB decides to call after all. I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

The flop is 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG is a tellbox, I can see that he is probably about to get cold feet so I decide to bet the flop (this is of course debatable but I'd prefer that it be left out of the discussion of the hand because the meet is on the later streets), I get 2 callers - BB and the maniac who loves to see turns before deciding how to proceed because of "pot odds". Turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I bet, BB raises, maniac folds, I call.

River is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Whats your line and why? Also talk to me about the turn, my bet/call line is debatable, I knew this action was possible once BB called.

Notes on BB - I found that she likes to limp in a lot of pots pre-flop but generally plays a SSHE style. Joe Tall commented that she was weak-tight in the BB and easy to steal against (he knew who she was), in this session she was by no doubt the second best player on the table but her pre-flop hand selection was a bit weak with her limps and I found that she liked to play from the blinds quite often. She is crushing the table and feels confident, but she tends to miss value bets when she is unsure where she stands and also tends to call down a bit too lightly at times but never shows aggression when that occurs.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:16 PM
MitchL MitchL is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Paul, MN
Posts: 1,712
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:18 PM
private joker private joker is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: north american scum
Posts: 11,413
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

The river doesn't change much about the hand. If your straight wasn't good, then obviously it still isn't good (and you were worried enough about it to just call the turn). If your straight was good vs. some sort of set/2pair, then the river could have hurt you but passive/weak live female players don't tend to raise the turn here without a straight or flush.

I'd tend to rate your chances in this hand pretty low, and I think c/c or c/f could be argued. c/c would only be for a chop at best, so I think the optimal play is c/f but it's read-based and you kind of have to be there to know for sure. The thing is, live players just do not tend to raise big streets on a monotone board without a flush. You missed on the river, and unless she can get tricky you're dead.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:19 PM
private joker private joker is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: north american scum
Posts: 11,413
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

[ QUOTE ]
you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

P.S. -- TT, I know it's a 2/3 blind structure, but I still think PF is a bit thin. I think it's a clear fold in a 1/2 against an UTG raise, and in a 2/3 not a whole lot changes except your immediate odds... I don't think QJo is much of an implied odds hand. And you don't want to bring the BB along with it anyway. I tend to defend my blinds pretty rarely, so I may be in the minority of those who fold PF but I'm just throwing it out there.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:27 PM
MitchL MitchL is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Paul, MN
Posts: 1,712
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that we are probably beat also but as TT says she is confident and when you are confident you are less afraid to push. This pot is huge and I think we are chopping enough to call. Also, though she scares easy, I see people who fit this description spazz out in weird spots like this. There is one particular type of opponent that I would lay this down too and she does not fit that mold
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-29-2007, 05:45 PM
*TT* *TT* is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Vehicle Chooser For Life!
Posts: 17,198
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you played it fine. Anything other than cc on the river is out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mitch -- give me some hand ranges for what she's going to fire on the river here.

P.S. -- TT, I know it's a 2/3 blind structure, but I still think PF is a bit thin. I think it's a clear fold in a 1/2 against an UTG raise, and in a 2/3 not a whole lot changes except your immediate odds... I don't think QJo is much of an implied odds hand. And you don't want to bring the BB along with it anyway. I tend to defend my blinds pretty rarely, so I may be in the minority of those who fold PF but I'm just throwing it out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Mitch - hand ranges!

PJ - i hear you about pre-flop, its very slim but I feel comfortable playing in these slim situations. its marginally profitable in the long run thanks to the blind structure, but i wouldn't advise all players do the same of course unless they play well post flop. Of course I don't always play well postflop, but I am trying.

Lets talk about the turn. I'd anticipate a raise on the turn 75% of the time from the BB, possibly more. I bet anyway knowing it was possible.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-29-2007, 06:02 PM
private joker private joker is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: north american scum
Posts: 11,413
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

Mitch -- we're getting 9:1 to call the river, which means we have to be chopping, what, over 20% of the time. And after we call her turn raise, I just don't imagine her firing again on the river very often with a naked Q (no flush, no KQ, no boat). That river pairing scares every live player.

Now I'm not saying calling is bad, I'm just saying folding is probably better or at least as good, so the comment "anything other than calling is terrible" sounds a bit specious.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-29-2007, 06:11 PM
DosXX DosXX is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 107
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

Who is the woman? I know a few who might fit that description, generally, I find it most important to recognize what they think of you and adjust. Sometimes this is a naked Q against me, sometimes there is no way in hell this wouldn't be a flush, what was your image at this point?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-29-2007, 06:17 PM
that_pope that_pope is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Casino AZ
Posts: 458
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

Check, and she will check behind and show TxQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the dealer has some work to do.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-29-2007, 06:23 PM
SNOWBALL SNOWBALL is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Where the citizens kneel 4 sex
Posts: 7,795
Default Re: Hollywood Park 15/30 - OESF draw and nut straight on flop

ok here is my attempt to stove PF

I gave UTG the top 19.6% of hands. I gave the maniac a 37.3 coldcalling range, excluding hands that I think a lot of maniacs would 3 bet.

We're getting 17:4 and our equity is a bit over 30, so it looks like an OK spot if TT genuinely feels he can play well with this hand in this spot after the flop

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,082,689 games 83.328 secs 60,996 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.774% 41.10% 01.67% 2088975 85090.00 { 55+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, A7o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 26.369% 25.65% 00.72% 1303522 36747.00 { 44-22, A6s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q6s, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A6o-A2o, K9o-K2o, QTo-Q9o, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 64o+, 54o }
Hand 2: 30.857% 29.48% 01.37% 1498542 69813.00 { QsJh }

Notice this is assuming BB's telegraph was accurate, and that she folds.

Is this stove a joke, PJ?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.