zomg i called 2 bets on the turn with a frush draw and OESD

[JJH3984]

You're getting 6-1 on the turn? I think you may be drawing dead. Why would a fit or fold TAG check on the turn when it's so clear you have a frush draw and the chances of this getting checked through are so high? That said, and without knowing how often you need to be drawing live for this to be profitable, I probably find a fold on the turn.

[mikeca]

Reflecting on this turn line a bit more, I am thinking that a straight forward fit or fold TAG might play flopped quads this way.

[chesspain]

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this is a good spot to lead the flop. Youd be surprised how often you take it down and you dont get raised all that often.

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[dedenburn]

*grunch*
Am I absolutely stupid for thinking seriously that swami flopped quads? Flopped quads make a lot of otherwise reasonable people do strange things. (like check-3bet after a c/r)

I'm calling flop, but seriously considering a turn fold.

[jesse8888]

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this is a good spot to lead the flop. Youd be surprised how often you take it down and you dont get raised all that often.

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How often are 4 opponents going to fold to a bet here? Against 2 or even 3 I could see this, but how often do you think you'll take this pot down uncontested? I'm just curious and trying to see if I should do stuff like that more. Usually when an ace flops in my game and I don't have one, I'm behind unless no aces were dealt....

[NinaWilliams]

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this is a good spot to lead the flop. Youd be surprised how often you take it down and you dont get raised all that often.

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How often are 4 opponents going to fold to a bet here? Against 2 or even 3 I could see this, but how often do you think you'll take this pot down uncontested? I'm just curious and trying to see if I should do stuff like that more. Usually when an ace flops in my game and I don't have one, I'm behind unless no aces were dealt....

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Often enough. You're calling a bet anyway so Id rather bet because I dont think you're getting raised too much anyway.

[jesse8888]

I agree that a raise is fairly unlikely, but if you bet and the player on your left raises, isn't that catastrophic? I struggle with playing these "can't win by spiking pairs" draws in early position against a large field and would love for someone to teach me how to handle them.

[jesse8888]

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That said, and without knowing how often you need to be drawing live for this to be profitable, I probably find a fold on the turn.

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He's getting 6.25 to 1 on the turn, assuming the other player calls his last big bet. He's also effectively closing the action.

1. In the best possible case, he has nine clubs, three 4s, and three 9s to make his hand. Thats 15 outs.

2. In the worst possible case, he is drawing dead.

3. In some cases he has fewer than 15 outs, if some outs fill someone up (say Swami holds 45s, for example). There is also a small chance his flush will be toileted.

Let's assume the river action is even money when he hits, and just work with what he's presented on the turn (I don't think we're raising even if we hit, so only one bet is going in, and I think it's safe to say we're somewhere around 50/50 if we hit on that bet).

At 6.25:1 with 46 unknown cards, you need 6.5 outs to call profitably. When you're in case 3 (drawing live but with less than 15 outs), I think it's safe to say you have more than 6.5 outs on average. A bigger flush draw is unlikely, and that's what you're really worried about, as it would kill 9 of your outs. If I may, I'll call case 3 break even, but I think it's actually a bit better than that.

So, we're down to cases 1 and 2, where we have 15 outs and 0 outs, respectively. Since we need 7 outs to make this call, we need to be drawing live around 45% of the time to make this call.

Do my numbers make sense so far? The next question is, "How often are we drawing live"?

[jesse8888]

By 45% of the time, I mean "45% of the time we have either zero or fifteen outs"