Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is off - hero wins 8.4% of 814 when called, but when he calls and loses it is (91.6%)x(-228) which is the cost of hero's bluff. This changes the ultimate answer pretty drastically:

EV= 68.37+ -208.85
EV= -140.478

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-140.478)(1-x)

0=358x-140.478+140.478x
0=498.478x - 140.478
140.478 = 498.478x
x = 28.18%

I would venture that there is a >28% chance that villain has called a hand that is not AA/KK that will fold, either a poorly played QQ/JJ or some shenanigans that shouldn't have seen a flop, so I would shove. It doesn't necessarily matter if the hand that folds is AQ-esque, since we cannot call a bet so we are just taking the right of first bluff.

Surf

[Barrin6]

Thanks for clearing that up for me. Was wondering why the FE was so high.

So isn't it clear that we should shove here? It's such good bluffing odds especially even on this board.

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
TILT and I've been playing real bad this week. My hand is embarassing. genneo, your hand was good.

Fionn, you're stats are old. You constantly berating me and calling me a nit, inspired me to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

who are you? pm me if you want

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TILT and I've been playing real bad this week. My hand is embarassing. genneo, your hand was good.

Fionn, you're stats are old. You constantly berating me and calling me a nit, inspired me to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

who are you? pm me if you want

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was obvious who I am based on my post.

[DevinLake]

Fionn, ur PM box is full.

[FionnMac]

sorry, emptied now