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#1
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Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
I am a marginally winning LHE player (micros) who has started experimenting with pot-limit and although I am winning nicely (over a small sample) I know that I don't really know what I am doing.
I have only been at the table for a few orbits, and have no individual reads or stats. However the table is playing very passive and quite loose preflop - 5 or 6 out of 9 people limping to the flop is typical. A couple of players have just left so we are down to 7. I limp in early position with suited connectors hoping to see a cheap flop with a few other limpers: Poker Room skin Pot Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.25 7 players Converter Stack sizes: Hero: $41.50 UTG+1: $31.90 MP1: $41.45 CO: $23.20 Button: $22.25 SB: $1.55 BB: $14.80 Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, SB checks, BB checks. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.25</font>, I have flopped the idiot end of a straight, on a monotone flop (sadly not my suit!). I bet just a bit under the pot to see if anyone likes their hand, and maybe get loose calls from TP hands or one diamond hands (is this correct thinking? Should I have checked? Doesn't seem right to check with a vulnerable straight) UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $6.5</font>, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero ... ? Lots of action, I am behind a flush or higher straight - with all the preflop limpers there are almost certainly flush and higher straight draws out there. I don't think I should call. My instinct is to fold with this much action but is that too tight? |
#2
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
Super easy fold, poor risk:reward ratio, out of position.
I don't mind the bet because you resolved this early. I'd probably check turn if someone flat called. |
#3
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
I don't play FR but I would fold this hand pre-flop UTG in 6-max, so I would definitely fold it UTG 7-handed.
MP1's raise can mean a lot of things; it does not mean you're beat. He could easily have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], two pair, or a set and the fact that there were two people who flat-called, including a cold-caller, it's highly likely there are two or more diamonds in other people's hands. I'm not going to hesitate to get money in here. If someone flopped a flush or the higher straight, good for them. However, this is why it is a bad idea to play 98s, out of position, in a limped pot. |
#4
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play FR but I would fold this hand pre-flop UTG in 6-max, so I would definitely fold it UTG 7-handed. MP1's raise can mean a lot of things; it does not mean you're beat. He could easily have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], two pair, or a set and the fact that there were two people who flat-called, including a cold-caller, it's highly likely there are two or more diamonds in other people's hands. I'm not going to hesitate to get money in here. If someone flopped a flush or the higher straight, good for them. However, this is why it is a bad idea to play 98s, out of position, in a limped pot. [/ QUOTE ] To clarify: I'm not necessarily saying you should get all your chips in here. However, the idea of folding a flopped straight to that raise is just crazy. Put yourself in the shoes of someone with a set, two pair, the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], etc. They are all going to raise you there. You have to re-raise. Now, say he pushes over the top of your re-raise - it's not necessarily a fold. He would be pushing with a set, the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], possibly the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as well as with K9, KQ, and a flush. Like I said, the fact that there were two flat-callers on the flop indicates to me that there aren't many diamonds left in the deck. Getting stacked here would not be a large mistake, if it's a mistake at all. |
#5
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
[ QUOTE ]
You have to re-raise. Now, say he pushes over the top of your re-raise - it's not necessarily a fold. He would be pushing with a set, the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], possibly the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as well as with K9, KQ, and a flush. [/ QUOTE ] That's why I wouldn't reraise the flop. If OP reraises to price out draws, it's going to be around $20+, half of his stack. Then if he's going to consider folding to a push, he has made a mistake. Calling the raise may be OK; at least he won't be committed and can fold if a diamond/K comes off. But I don't feel confident about this hand because: it's an unraised pot and stacks are 166BB. Unless these players suck, they're not going to be raising this flop with JTo The action goes: one call, Potsized raise, coldcall, ... With that I'd suspect that a flush or K9 may actually be out there. And if not the turn could suck. BTW 98 is even-money with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]+a pair on this flop. edit: and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a 52% favorite |
#6
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You have to re-raise. Now, say he pushes over the top of your re-raise - it's not necessarily a fold. He would be pushing with a set, the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], possibly the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as well as with K9, KQ, and a flush. [/ QUOTE ] That's why I wouldn't reraise the flop. If OP reraises to price out draws, it's going to be around $20+, half of his stack. Then if he's going to consider folding to a push, he has made a mistake. [/ QUOTE ] You don't have to raise 3x time the re-raise. Raising to $16ish would be fine. He'd have $25 behind. If someone pushes, he can easily get away from his hand. Just because you're getting 2:1, or close to it, does not mean you're pot-committed. It's a common mistake to think you're pot-committed when you're not. [ QUOTE ] Calling the raise may be OK; at least he won't be committed and can fold if a diamond/K comes off. [/ QUOTE ] That's exactly why you DO want to raise on the flop, so a diamond or K does not come off for free. This is like saying you don't want to put money in with AA so you can see a flop before putting your chips in. [ QUOTE ] But I don't feel confident about this hand because: it's an unraised pot and stacks are 166BB. Unless these players suck, they're not going to be raising this flop with JTo [/ QUOTE ] Um, raising with two pair here is completely fine. What, are you going to fold two pair to the PSB? [ QUOTE ] The action goes: one call, Potsized raise, coldcall, ... With that I'd suspect that a flush or K9 may actually be out there. And if not the turn could suck. [/ QUOTE ] There's no reason anyone must have a flush or K9. Obviously, it's a possibility, but they also could have a set, two pair, or a draw. [ QUOTE ] BTW 98 is even-money with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]+a pair on this flop. edit: and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a 52% favorite [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but with the overlay, folding to those hands is incorrect. Add in the fact that there are other hands which are significantly worse underdogs (two pair, sets) and it makes it a much closer decision. |
#7
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the bet because you resolved this early. I'd probably check turn if someone flat called. [/ QUOTE ] Checking the turn if it bricks is crazy - you're giving them the chance to draw to the nut flush or a full house for free. |
#8
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
Your point about not playing this hand OOP even cheaply is taken - seeing a cheap flop is less important I guess in big bet poker compared to position after the flop. Thank you for your comments, things to think about!
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#9
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
Hero folds because his hand cannot possibly get any better and he's in RIO hell.
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#10
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Re: Bad end of a straight, monotone flop, getting action
27 two pair - 84% equity
9 sets - 63% equity Approximately 400 hands he's even money with (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands) - 50% equity 4 hands he's tied with (98 no diamonds) - 50% equity 5 hands he's tied with when another diamond doesn't come up - 32% equity 12 hands he's behind, but has 3 outs to tie with (K9) - 8% equity 16 hands he's behind and virtually drawing dead against - 0% 45 flushes he's drawing dead against (or virtually) - 0% equity Total of 518 hands. Equity against the range = (27/518)(.84) + (9/518)(.63) + (400/518)(.50) + (4/518)(.50) + (5/518)(.32) + (16/518)(0) + (45/518)(0) = 44.8% equity However, this does not include the fact that there may be worse hands than these (overpairs, hands like AQ, bare straight draws) which may fold to a re-raise. If only 20% of the time someone folds to your re-raise, re-raising is clearly +EV. This also also assumes that any two suited cards are in villain's range. |
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