NL50 AK TPTK drawheavy board

[mojed]

I don't think there is only 15 behind, villain (SB) just chose to make a small bet.

Edit: I meant that the villain hasn't put us all in with a $15 bet.

[Nick Royale]

Call. Closer to a push than a fold imo.

[Genz]

28+15=43 which leaves hero with only 16 behind. Hero actually commited himself to the pot with his turn bet when he put in 30% of his starting stack there. I don't know if villain realizes that but it looks like a value-bet anyway. When you check behind on the turn, you will pick up more bluffs on the river and you don't jeopardize your whole stack against an unknown.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
with the Ah in my hand, I like a check behind on the turn. I'm usually NOT looking to get it in with TPTK against a deep stack. I think you are beat here 85% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

in that case bet bigger on the flop. Then I like this other line.

[Fammy]

Sorry, Genz has it right, my math was off, but idea is the same...I think that the hero committed himself early in the hand, and for sure by the turn. If you don't want to get AI with TPTK, (villain is ultra-tight and you know if you get AI you are very often beat), then this pot needed to be a lot smaller from the get go. As played, this, IMHO, is a committed pot and I am looking to take it down by the turn OR get an extra pay-out if it goes to showdown. If you do feel this is a -EV play for this situation, then there was a significant problem with the read on the villain / his hand, a significant error in the betting line, or perhaps, both. Personally, I think the decision on committment needed to occur at the flop, and I think even by then it may have been too late for the hero to decide he wasn't committed without a VERY specific reason. As played, this is a committed pot, and I just don't think there is strong enough evidence to leave that plan, though I still believe it may have been a better situation to go AI on the turn making your opponent decide....unless you think from the beginning it is LIKELY based on reads that he is sitting on 2 pair or better...and if that is the case, why bet into him over and over when he is not going to fold?

Fammy

[IAGTTAYM]

Any read on SB? I cant see him bluffing the river with QJ or w/e so does he value bet worse? Is KQ, KJ or something worse +20% of his range? I think its close, but I would lean towards folding.