Blind vs Blind, Tough river decision

johnbeans · #1 04-22-2007, 03:32 AM

Villain is 18/15/2 over 500 hand, but most of these hands are datamined since I have no history with villain. I suspect he is 2p2 because of his name. Overall the guy seems solid.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed)

Hero ($174.50)
UTG ($56.10)
MP ($111.50)
CO ($94.95)
Button ($128.25)
SB ($101)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, SB raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8.

Flop: ($24) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB calls $18.

Turn: ($60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($60) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $71 (All-In), Hero ?

ASPoker8 · #2 04-22-2007, 05:11 AM

who?

This is very player dependant

Kilillan · #3 04-22-2007, 05:58 AM

usually no

but history and read dependent

OMGTILTING · #4 04-22-2007, 06:22 AM

Witouth any history this is a fold.

johnbeans · #5 04-22-2007, 07:25 AM

What kind of hands can we put the villain on? I checked the turn, so isn't this a bluff a lot of the time?

Edit: I mean is it safe to say villain would almost never take this line with QJ,KJ, another AJ, QQ+ without any history between the two of us?

tannenj · #6 04-22-2007, 07:47 AM

i don't mind your line. i think checking behind the flop and shoving the turn are also reasonable lines.

i'm having trouble coming up with a hand he can have on the river. TT makes some sense, as does air. i know i'd shove a drawy flop like this with QQ+, but i suppose that's possible too.

i think the river decision is very close in terms of ev.

cuQa · #7 04-22-2007, 07:53 AM

I think folding is best. the only hand in his range he would call oop and which yuo beat is AK

Kilillan · #8 04-22-2007, 08:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't mind your line. i think checking behind the flop and shoving the turn are also reasonable lines.

i'm having trouble coming up with a hand he can have on the river. TT makes some sense, as does air. i know i'd shove a drawy flop like this with QQ+, but i suppose that's possible too.

i think the river decision is very close in terms of ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this line from tags is often a missed turn c/r.

Also JTs makes a lot of sense given his line

And of course air and missed draws.

But flush draws are much less likely in reraised pots, and the fact he'd probably c/c any weaker top pair hand makes very few hands he'd turn into a stone bluff.

I.E fold quick the more I think about it

johnbeans · #9 04-22-2007, 01:45 PM

So this really isn't a missed FD or stone cold bluff over 55% of time? Really?

Oct0puz · #10 04-22-2007, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So this really isn't a missed FD or stone cold bluff over 55% of time? Really?

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to have the best hand 35% of the time.