Bottom trips...worth capping? 1/2 LO8

T50_Omaha8 · #1 07-12-2006, 07:53 PM

This is six-handed $1/$2 LO8, at a rather loose table. Villian was certainly not an expert nor a rock, but he wasn't autobetting either.

PokerStars 1/2 Omaha/8 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB was shortstacked at $3.25, thus me pushing him in preflop.

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, Villian calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, Villian calls, Button calls, SB caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, Villian calls, Button calls.

Flop: (19.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, Villian 3-bets, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Villian bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero raises, Villian 3-bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero ???

General hand play comments requested. Was I way too excited? Should I have folded? Called? Thanks in advance.

Fiasco · #2 07-12-2006, 07:58 PM

use a converter

grjr · #3 07-12-2006, 09:15 PM

BB hasn't folded so it looks like he has the other 7. That leaves 99 for the villain. I'd try to get to the river as cheaply as possible.

wiseheart · #4 07-12-2006, 09:31 PM

don't fold this b4 river,
sometimes villain might
be overplaying AA2 here or
something wierd like that.
No low on river, and no full
house probably means fold,
but if you think you can get
away with seeing a showdown
by calling one bet, then odds
are you should call.

Pnigro · #5 07-12-2006, 10:00 PM

I like capping here, who knows, maybe no one has 99 and you end up scooping? You also have A24 protecting you. So yeah, cap it.

T50_Omaha8 · #6 07-13-2006, 12:44 AM

Well, half of me wanted to push the pot over $60--absurdly huge for a 6-handed $1/$2 game, but I had been running really badly until now, so I decided to just be safe and see the river by calling.

River: (27.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Villian bets, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.75 BB

I could not fold that river getting 30 to 1 almost, even though I was sure I was beat.

Showdown:
Villian shows 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Even though the river was pretty awful, I still feel like I overplayed it. I had no reason to think Villian was THAT dumb. Also my low draw was definitely tied by at least one other player (unless I hit a miracle A or something). Best case scenario against a reasonable set of players probably would have been 1/4.

Buzz · #7 07-13-2006, 01:12 AM

T50 - Let's focus on the betting on the third betting round, because that is where I believe you made your mistake.

Villain bets this flop as though holding 99XY or 79XY. Considering your knowledge of the whereabouts of the cards, it's about equally likely for Villain to have either of these hands. If Villain holds 99XY, you have no chance of winning high. For simplicity, let's discount the possibility Villain has AA79. That discounted, if Villain holds 79XY, you win high if the river is an ace.

Let's consider the possible cards on the river. 22 unseen cards are no good at all for you. Either assuming Villain already has nines full of sevens or sevens full of nines, you lose if any of these (mostly high) cards come on the river. 1 card, the missing seven, gives you quads and you scoop. 3 cards, the missing aces make you sevens full of aces and should win both high and low half the time but only win low the other half of the time. 18 cards make you the nut low. (Some of them make you the nut low with a losing full house for high). That's assuming Villain has flopped a full house, a very reasonable assumption here, but not a sure thing.

It should be noted that there's an outside chance Villain also has flopped trip sevens with an ace kicker (or is bluffing or semi-bluffing with something else). But this betting sequence seriously looks as though Villain has flopped a full house, and you should play accordingly. (Except you don't just fold. In a way, it may seem as though you should fold when an opponent bets as though having a holding that beats you, and indeed sometimes you should, but generally what to do is more complicated than simply taking your opponent's word for things).

When you win for low, I think you should expect to get quartered about two times out of five.

When you scoop, your raise wins one big bet from each of your three opponents.
When you win the low half, your raise wins one big bet from one of your opponents.
When you tie for the low half, your raise costs you 1/3 of a big bet.
When you lose, your raise costs you one big bet.

Roughly then,

1/44 you scoop. +3 for you.
3/2/44 you scoop. +4.5 for you.
2/2/44 you win half. +1 for you.
1/2/44 you win a quarter. -0.5 for you.
12/44 you win a half. +12 for you.
6/44 you win a quarter. -3 for you.
22/44 you lose. -22 for you.
And that's rounding off so as to be generous to you.

Tallying,
3 + 4.5 + 1 - 0.5 + 12 - 3 - 22 = -5.

Since the total is negative, you figure to show a loss by raising.

You easily have a good enough chance of winning to call a bet on the turn. You have enormously favorable odds to call a bet on the turn. However you don't have a good enough chance of winning fresh money to justify a raise on the turn.

Probably your best play is to bet the turn and then call any raise, even though if Villain really has flopped a full house, you don't actually have a good enough chance of winning to initiate fresh money into the pot. But just in case Villain is somehow looking for a free card, I'd bet the turn. (There's always the shadow of a doubt regarding the veracity of Villain's betting).

I don't fault check/calling the turn. If you were absolutely certain Villain has flopped a full house, that would be the correct play.

But you have no business raising, let alone check-raising on the turn.

What it boils down to is if you put Villain on a probable flopped full house, you're not getting as good odds by raising the turn as you would get playing the slots.

But what if Villain doesn't actually hold a flopped full house? What if Villain is bluffing (or semi-bluffing)?

You protect yourself against those possibilities by calling. Trip sevens with an ace kicker just might be good enough here. Not likely, but there's enough of a chance to call on the turn and then again river.

In summary, your proper play is to bet the turn and then simply call any raise. (I don't fault checking the turn and then calling a bet).

[ QUOTE ]
General hand play comments requested.

[/ QUOTE ]Fine on the first two betting rounds. Way too much testosterone on the third betting round.
[ QUOTE ]
Was I way too excited?

[/ QUOTE ]Only on the third betting round.[ QUOTE ]
Should I have folded?

[/ QUOTE ]Absolutely not!!![ QUOTE ]
Called?

[/ QUOTE ]On the third betting round, I think you should have bet yourself and then simply called any raise.

And if you miss on the river, you should call (1) because of the size of the pot, (2) because your trip sevens with an ace kicker might win or tie for high, and also (3) because you look too "weak" if you don't.

Buzz

Buzz · #8 07-13-2006, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so I decided to just be safe and see the river by calling.

[/ QUOTE ]T50 - Correct.
[ QUOTE ]
I could not fold that river getting 30 to 1 almost, even though I was sure I was beat.

[/ QUOTE ]Correct. Well... almost sure.
[ QUOTE ]
Even though the river was pretty awful, I still feel like I overplayed it.

[/ QUOTE ]You didn't overplay the river. You overplayed the turn.
[ QUOTE ]
I had no reason to think Villian was THAT dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]He merely overplayed his flopped trip sevens. As you move up in limits that will happen less and less often.
[ QUOTE ]
Also my low draw was definitely tied by at least one other player

[/ QUOTE ]Not necessarily. I think you usually (3/5) will win all of low, but will be tied roughly two times out of five.
[ QUOTE ]
Best case scenario against a reasonable set of players probably would have been 1/4.

[/ QUOTE ]Best case scenario from where? After the turn you're hoping for a favorable river card, but you didn't get one. On the river, you're hoping Villain has been bluffing or semi-bluffing (or simply somehow playing incorrectly, which seems to have been the case) and that your set of sevens with an ace kicker will hold up for high. Turns out Villain got lucky on the river instead of you.

Buzz

T50_Omaha8 · #9 07-13-2006, 01:47 AM

Wow, thanks for all the great analysis. I guess I was fooled in the moment by how pretty my hand was--trips with top kicker and 3 card low draw, not to mention 2 people calling along merrily bloating the pot (with terrible odds on the low draws they must have had).

And what I meant by "reasonable players" is people who can be assumed to function more or less like the ones in your model. If I had known their hands, I would have capped every round, but I didn't know their hands. I played stupidly, even though it had a positive expectation, and if I keep doing stuff like that moving up in limits I'll be a losing player for sure. Thanks again for the insight. It's good to hear in depth analysis from people who play in a bigger game (& play a better game) than I do.

grjr · #10 07-13-2006, 02:12 AM

I would play as much as possible with these particular players. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This had to be at Pacific, right?