Would you fold medium set on FD flop and just one reraise?

[alavet]

[image]http://hostpic.ru/viewer.php?id=861630fold.JPG[/image]
http://hostpic.ru/thumbs/861630fold.JPG
edit: how to display image there? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Would you fold medium set on FD flop and just one reraise?
table is rather tight

what about you dont know about table?

[Silent A]

Like this (ignore the spaces - they're only there to let you see what I typed):

[ image ]http://hostpic.ru/images/861630fold.JPG[ /image ]

Result (with no spaces):

[AustinBOOM]

because hes shortstacked, i dont fold

[Silent A]

Probably not for those stacks unless I had a really nitty read on villain.

[iggymcfly]

Wouldn't this be automatic from villain with any combo draw given stack sizes? I don't even consider folding here. Also, villain didn't reraise. He raised. The question is would you fold medium set on FD flop for one raise against a shortstack. I'm sure there's someone nitty enough out there to make it a correct fold, but it's certainly not a fold I make ever.

[alavet]

the table there was really tight
noone raise preflop, even with AA

and i think the way you guys plays your draws its not similar in our poor bastard limits : )

[Flipper IRL]

God, I hate iPoker. I'd never fold here

[Buzz]

Alavet – I think it’s fair to say that any of your four opponents who flopped trip queens would continue after this flop.

When Kopeikin raises with roughly half of his stack on the second betting round, Hero has to consider the possibility that Kopeikin has flopped a set of queens.

And then when Reel2alk calls, Hero has to consider that maybe Reel2alk is the one with flopped a set of queens. (Some opponents might bet a set of queens from early position while others might slow play it, especially against a very aggressive field. And others would mix up their play.)

Thus Hero must consider the possibility one of his four opponents who saw the flop actually has flopped a set of queens. The two who continued would be more likely to have flopped the set of queens (if anybody flopped a set of queens) than the two who folded, but I think we have to figure (or simulate) from the standpoint of four possible positions with the set of queens than from two or just one. In other words, in setting up a calculation or simulation, the probability of one of four flopped a set of queens is more important than the probability one or two individuals flopped a set of queens.

The same is true, but to a lesser extent, for the possibility of a flush draw better than Hero’s.

Running a simulation seems quickest and easiest here. Thus I’m going to run a 100,000 deal simulation including Hero’s cards and the three flop cards against four opponents with random cards. (Obviously these four opponents don’t have random cards, but from the standpoint of the cards that matter most after this flop, queens, nines, deuces, and clubs, the possibility an opponent is playing a hand with any of those cards is random, or perhaps even less than random).

First I’m interested in the probability an opponent has flopped a set of queens. 1838+1747+1871+1901=7357 flopped sets of queens for opponents. Then I’m also interested in deuces making quads. I think (from analysis of the sim results) that turns out to be about 352 quad deuces.

But if the board pairs queens, Hero could still lose to queens full, as when an opponent is holding Q9XY or Q2XY (perhaps also with clubs). And an opponent could also be holding AAXY or KKXY, perhaps also with clubs. Or an opponent with another pair in the sims would sometimes make back-door quads.

Let’s just look at the sim results.

Hero loses with a full house or quads, as simulated, about one time out of five. The other four times out of five, Hero’s middle set wins when the board pairs.

27469 Hero improves to a full house or quads and wins.
7221 Hero improves to a full house or quads and loses.

12854 Hero improves to a baby flush and wins.
11484 Hero improves to a baby flush and loses.

18114 Hero does not improve and trip nines wins.
22858 Hero does not improve and trip nines loses.

That’s obviously for a 100,000 run simulation.

Even when he doesn’t improve, there’s enough in the pot so that Hero should probably call the last bet.

27469+18114+12854 = 58437. Hero wins a whopping 58.4% as simulated against four random hands. And then Hero must lose 41.6%. So first of all, Hero should expect flopped middle set with a baby flush draw to win more than it loses. (And almost in a 3:2 ratio).

There are two pots, the main pot, from which Hero stands to gain
22.85*2+2.90*2+0.50 = $52 (if he wins) by continuing, assuming Reel2alk also continues.
And by continuing, he’s risking $19.95 more in the main pot.

And there’s the side pot, from which Hero could win or lose
35.90-22.85 = $13.05 more.

2.90+19.95+13.05=35.90 (checks)

A second possibility is Reel2alk could fold to kopeikin’s all-in bet on the second betting round, and in that case, Hero would win a minimum of 22.85*1+12.50*1+2.90*2+0.50 = $41.65 (but only be risking $19.95).

I can see some other possibilities, but I think these two are the most likely.

Thus, second, Hero wins more when he wins than he loses when he loses.

Putting it together, Hero wins more than he loses and wins more when he wins than when he loses. Took me hours to figure that out, but as I look at it, it’s a no brainer. Continuing here is enormously favorable for Hero.

Flopped middle set in an Omaha-8 game (my usual game) can be very tough to play, between losing to a better high hand and splitting with low.

I ran another quick sim (just 10000 runs) without the baby flush draw, just the flopped middle set against four hands with random cards. (If anything, Hero has a worse chance against random hands after this flop than chosen hands)

2817 Hero improves to a full house or quads and wins.
734 Hero improves to a full house or quads and loses.

2166 Hero does not improve and trip nines wins.
4283 Hero does not improve and trip nines loses.

Hero with just the flopped middle set still wins approximately half the time.

Thanks to Silent A for making the hands clear. (I don't generally go to off site locations to look at hands).

Buzz

[alavet]

uh
so many calculations
my head is corrupted.

i very aprreciate your math, but we also know that poker is not about math usually but about people. And people make his decisions not about math mostly but with their instincts or thougths.
after my pot bet i was very surprised to see i've been raised. as i said the table was rather tight. i started to think what can he hold in such table to reraise with.
so it would be
22, QQ, Q9 (very low opportunity). i can prorbably add there there a NutFlushDraw, but not str8 draw.
okay. AFter another player has called i assumed that he might have: 22, QQ (not so bad way with such situation, when he asssume i can go all in), Flush draw, and str8 draw.

probably, if there is a flush draw its most probably a nut flush draw, so another call or raise its not about flush draw).
so i assumed at this situation they would have flush draw and trips or flush draw and straight draw or trips and trips.
then i thought about my hand: i actually had naked trips. and most probably another one have a set. discounting table image i credited someone a trips, and not a bottom one.

about hand at all, i think i would call/raise that because of the opportunities of side pot. but actually i had very low bankroll to risk with. i folded

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
uh
so many calculations
my head is corrupted.

i very aprreciate your math, but we also know that poker is not about math usually but about people. And people make his decisions not about math mostly but with their instincts or thougths.

[/ QUOTE ]
In this situation I think it's more about cards. I couldn't read Buzz' analysis but I'm sure it can be summarized as: you have middle set and he could have any amount of worse hands, and there is already some money in the pot, so you should go all in.