Razz hand - should I fold 6th?

[roggles]

I played the following Razz hand and I don't really feel sure about either 5th or 6th street. I really would appreciate some advice. I don't feel that I can fold 5th street. I do have equity to call, right? However, 6th street is another brick for me and good card for him. Is it a fold? It seems sort of likely that his ace paired him, seeing as how aggressive he was on 4th (although I don't fully understand his play there either).

Razz ($2/$4), Ante $0,40, Bring-In $0,50 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises___calls

4th Street - (13.20 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls

5th Street - (9.60 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (11.60 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (13.60 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (13.60 BB - $54,40)

[Parallax]

Sadly, yes I am dumping 6th here. Seat 8 is a total dunce and I would sit in this game for hours if I could though. Just unfortunate that you bricked two streets and he caught good.

[Praxising]

Yup, fold 6th. I agree he very likely paired an A on 6th, but you're still drawing to an 8 and he just as likely has a made 7. I'm also weenie enough that I wouldn't have reraised on 4th. He obviously isn't going anywhere and I, just personally, hate an 8 draw. But that's just me.

3rd Street - (1.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises___calls

4th Street - (13.20 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___raises
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls

5th Street - (9.60 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (11.60 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

[ceegee]

[ QUOTE ]
Sadly, yes I am dumping 6th here. Seat 8 is a total dunce and I would sit in this game for hours if I could though. Just unfortunate that you bricked two streets and he caught good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[roggles]

I don't see why to not reraise on 4-th as a pure value bet. Admittedly maybe my investment in the pot contributed to me making a poor play on 6th, but all else equal I don't see why not to bet when you are ahead. Maybe you want to limit variance, but I think I'm ahead like 65-35, so to me it's a definite reraise.

[jbrennen]

I think you played it perfectly.

Assume he had two unpaired wheel cards in the hole at the start, and that he wouldn't bet 4th the way he did with a 4 in the hole. So his hole cards consist of two of: A, 2, 3, 5. If you enumerate all of the possibilities, there are 20 different ways he could have an Ace under out of 52 different hands. So figure 5/13 chance that he paired his Ace.

So 5/13 of the time, you've got a live draw to win.

Assume that you'll only call a river bet if you get a Ten or lower on the river which doesn't pair you. That leaves 18 cards out of 37 unseen where you'll put in 2 bets. Let's just say that 1/2 of the time you'll call a river bet.

So your expected outlay on 6th and 7th is 1.5 big bets. If you catch your card on the river, and if the Ace paired your opponent, you're probably about a 60:40 favorite (that's just rough, but probably close).

So your expected return from the pot is equal to 15.60 big bets (ending pot size), times 1/2 (chance that you catch your river card), times 5/13 (chance that your draw was live), times 6/10 (chance that your made live draw holds up to win). That's 1.8 big bets.

So I'm pretty sure that the call on 6th is correct, with an EV of about +0.3 big bets.



If you expand Villain's hole card range to two cards 6 or under, calling 6th becomes -EV, but if you expand it again to two cards 7 or under, calling becomes +EV again (because he might have paired 5th street). I see no reason to assign Villain the exact very specific range of hole cards that makes our call -EV. Nothing else in his play indicates that he would be willing to play (A-6)-J but not (A-7)-J.

[RustyBrooks]

Nice analysis jbrennan, and I'd call 6th.

[ceegee]

I don't get it. What can you be hoping to catch 6th that makes you think you are ahead. Asumming if villain didn't make his hand on 6th, you are still behind regardless if he had a 4 card 7.

[RustyBrooks]

Villain 3bet with a J up and then raised and called a 3bet on 4th into an apparent 4 card hand. If he has paired, he is going to keep betting. If he has double paired, he is probably still going to keep betting. You can't always assume your opponent has the worst possible cards for you. I'm calling down with T high or better. I expect to lose most of the time but the pot is huge, so when I don't lose, I more than make up for it.

[jbrennen]

[ QUOTE ]
Asumming if villain didn't make his hand on 6th, you are still behind regardless if he had a 4 card 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you look at my analysis, I'm only figuring that we have about an 11.5% chance to win the hand. About 38% chance that our draw is live, multiplied by about a 30% chance to win if our draw is live. But the pot is big enough to justify chasing the longshot due to all of the raising that went on earlier.