Second Chance, 10 Left, Blinds Battle

[uclabruinz]

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I think Shaun makes a good point about your image, and this is definitely a case where everyone is watching closely.

However, I think you have it wrong about your block theory. I think there is a time when 30BBs > 3 x 10BBs, the final table is not one of those times. Why?
-Survival has real tangible value now. If you hold our stack constant, we make more money every hand that passes
-Your new found arsenal of plays will be largely irrelevant when the effective stacks in most hands will be <15xBB (at least half the field has <15x)
-30x isn't THAT much different than 15x, in terms of plays you can make. I think the jump from 8 to 16 is much bigger than from 16 - 32, in terms of cEV plays you can now make. Definitely a steep decline in the marginal value of a chip after you get into the mid teens (this is independent of the whole $EV, cEV issue.)


FWIW, I think that your theory works best in specific situations, two obvious ones being:
-You have a few BAD players at your table early in the event with 50xBB, you have 15xBB. Basically your short stack negates a lot of your skill edge.

-Just before the bubble starts to become an issue. Just being able to make various moves preflop when play tightens up is worth taking a gambool with a small stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

[sheetsworld]

I make it 3x preflop, regardless of who is in the bb. If the player is a standard bad player, he will fold hands worse than mine and some that are better, becuase he wants to make the ft. If he is a good player, he will see the opportunity for the unexploitable reraise except that he should know that I am aware i am creating this situation intentionally, and will realize that I would not make this exploitable 3x raise with anything I am unwilling to call a shove with, so he will also fold all hands worse than mine, and plenty which are better. People would be surprised at how little the gap is between hands people will call a shove with here and hands they would shove a 3x raise with...it really is narrower than u think, espcially when you get near the bubble and people really really start thinking and over thinking.

I do not limp in this spot at all, for all the reasons given regarding the vagaries of playing out of position. I do not like the limp reraise either , as Ireally dont know if we can price out the kinds of hands which are willing to raise us. There are blinds and antes to be won, and we have a better than avg holding and it is very likely the bb we fold.

Preflop shoving is ok as well, but I suspect that actually raising with the intention of folding to a shove is better . I really dont think they play back with as many hands as people think...this is partially for similar reasons why I dont think the river call was good.

All theory aside, the reality is that this is a game between people, and the bottom line is, that after playing a tourney for 7 hours, a player who puts a whole pile of chips in the middle on the river on the bubble has a big hand, and usually has what he is representing. Yes sometimes someone will bluff, yes we can anlayze after the fact all these ways a person could have been bluffing, but the fact is, that in the heat of battle, after all of that effort, it is simply very VERY unlikely that someone doesnt have a big hand when he shoves the river like that.

I spoke about this with Paul afterwards and I think he suggested that he was 33% to have air or whatever. 33% is ALOT....In reality, when someone throws the pile in like that, I think they actually have air maybe 2% of the time.


What do I know anyway?

Raptor pwns


sheets