FT Sweat: UB 40k guaranteed

[uclabruinz]

Damn UB and their lack of hand histories. Are you sure, because if he did pot it I totally missed that, ugh. If it happened as you describe, I agree my move is not a good one.

But if it's a standard raise I think both his preflop raise and postflop shove could be any two, and then I think the move is good. Thoughts?

Paul-

Between you and me (and the forum), I really dislike that line. Think about what you're saying. You're calling off like 1/3 of your stack to try to hit a piece of the flop and folding otherwise. Against the opponent described, I just can't think that that line is better than just folding PF. I think you need to either SnG or fold here.

A random hand is ahead of you here (or tied, at the very least).

[Body Man D]

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Paul-

Between you and me (and the forum), I really dislike that line. Think about what you're saying. You're calling off like 1/3 of your stack to try to hit a piece of the flop and folding otherwise. Against the opponent described, I just can't think that that line is better than just folding PF. I think you need to either SnG or fold here.

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I agree. This might be a leak of mine but with 11BB's unless there is a big blind increasing coming soon, I think you still have time to wait for a hand or a better steal- resteal opportunity.

[uclabruinz]

If you KNOW his preflop range is any two and KNOW he'll push those any two regardless of the flop if you check to him, isn't this a +EV move? If we check/fold after missing we still have 8 BBs to shove from the upcoming LP.

Once the flop comes and we've hit it, we are almost 3:1 favorite against any random hand.

Also, as a general rule of thumb, I would say the shorter your stack, the less room there is for "creativity." With 15BBs, there definitely still is some. With 1BB, there's obviously zero. With 11, I'd say there's minimal.

[ QUOTE ]
If you KNOW his preflop range is any two and KNOW he'll push those any two regardless of the flop if you check to him, isn't this a +EV move? If we check/fold after missing we still have 8 BBs to shove from the upcoming LP.

Once the flop comes and we've hit it, we are almost 3:1 favorite against any random hand.

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I don't like it because you're calling off almost 1/3 of your stack, and then folding on the flop a lot when you're ahead.

[uclabruinz]

So this is how I looked at it at the time, possible outcomes:

1) 67% of the time I miss the flop and fold and am left with 8 BBs instead of 11 BBs.

2) 25% of the time I hit the flop and double through to 22 BBs.

3) 8% of the time I hit the flop but lose when I check/call his push.

This all assumes his preflop range is any two and his flop shoving range is any two (obvious we don't KNOW that but I was strongly suspecting this was the case).

[holla-at-yoboy]

I really don't think his range is any 2 here either. I really don't think he's raising something less than say, JQs