NL10. AA in trouble. How often does he have a draw?

[WantToLearn]

Ok - here´s some hand from a session that didn´t run very well at all.

Just by incident, I had to fold a lot. I had AA for a first time, saw a mono-board, met resistance and folded. Bad luck followed this, I had to give up often.

I was under the impression that people were loosening up with aggression, trying to push me off of my hands.
The villain involved here is the most suspicious of them.

Apart from his play, there´s a general read:
He plays only one table at a time. In generell, this kind of player normaly want to play, don´t want to wait for cards at their only table, and are especially observant to find someone they can bluff away like the TV pros do. That is my expercience.

Here we go:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $9.70
BB: $9.90
UTG: $8.25
UTG+1: $10.55
MP1: $7.00
Hero (MP2): $9.85
CO: $12.95
BTN: $9.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, <font color="red">CO raises all-in to $12.55</font>, Hero calls all-in for $6.95
Uncalled bet of $3.10 returned to CO

<font color="blue"> When I check, it is mainly for information. Flopped flushes played fast are almost unknown at NL10. I am much less afraid of a hand that he bets here. When he bets, I don´t feel like it really means the flop helped him at all. Again, see the reads mentioned above.

Now I check-raise, and he pushes.

Now what does that mean? Wouldn´t he try to suck me in with a made flush?
He is definitely apt to preflop cold-call with like ATo, KQo, so he might have a strong flush-draw. That´s the kind of hand I expect him to play that aggressiv.

I know that he might also have me beat beyond repair.

I have done some maths when the session was over.

Assuming I made no mistake, my play is +EV if he has only a draw &gt;=62% of the time.

How often will a villain like that have a draw, given both action and history/reads/my supposed weak-tight image?</font>

[FireStorm]

He has a hand that beats ours here a lot more often than you think. Sets and flopped flushes have us owned and would play like this. When you factor in that any hands other than these will suckout on us 35% of the time, this is a fold.

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
When you factor in that any hands other than these will suckout on us 35% of the time, this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that is already factored in!

[ElectricWaffles]

I think i'd be more happy to call with the ace of hearts. As it is I think you've gotta fold, I disagree that people at 10NL wont play flopped flushes fast. Your check-raise shows you really like you hand and he's probably aware of that, I've seen many NL10 players push in situations like that. Your read needs to be solid to call I think, there's no reason to get into a distance pissing contest if there's any doubt here. It sounds like you were steaming a bit from your preamble, was that the case?

[Chargers In 07]

In addition to what people have said. Don't c/r the flop. That is awful and you don't want to play a huge pot here.

[AlexB182]

I think you ll be seeing a set here most of the time cause villain might push a set here fearing you have the FD yourself. I don't see what you could beat here to be honest, because, as you stated, a made flush would rather try to get more of your money in the pot before shoving, and other hands like TP or overpair hands do not seem to make too much sense. Of course a big draw would make sense, too and your a fav against that one. Though, if he has a hand like Ah9x, you're only 56 to 44 in front. On the other hand, this is .5 /.10 and when I played on my girlfriends account at this limit a few days ago, I was always heavily disturbed what kind of hands villains play and show there...
In general: IMO, you re far too often behind here to make calling +EV.

[ElectricWaffles]

[ QUOTE ]
In addition to what people have said. Don't c/r the flop. That is awful and you don't want to play a huge pot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think this is a very good point. Pot control applies here, you might win a showdown but you dont want the pot to be large because your hand cant stand much heat.

[BotOnTilt]

I'd bet that flop since if villain doesn't have hearts / set I think he can fold easily. I don't see anything strange in him wanting to play it fast, he might assume you have Ah and doesn't want to see a fourth heart..

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you were steaming a bit from your preamble, was that the case?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it was. In addition to what I said, I also had to preflop fold KK at another table (we were ~230 BB deep, I had a <u>very</u> specific read, and I was right.)

I have a downswing at the moment. I make mistakes, but most of it comes from KK against AA - like 3 times out of 10 the last days - and AA losing against total trash - preflop all in, etc.

Maybe it got me some judgement problem, like: "They can´t have it all the time. It is not possible."

Well, he had K8s.


Thanks everyone!