Flush draw

liveplaya · #1 10-04-2007, 10:13 PM

hope you math guys can help me out a this.
i was playin a live 1-2 nlhe cash game. And this hand came up.

I rasie 2 of the cutoff w AKo every one folds to the bb who makes it 40 to go I call.
Flop comes 4 5 j w 2 clubs, bb says I got a flush draw "I'm all in"
knowing he has the A of clubs. His 3 bet range is any suited ace ne broadway and pairs 77 and up. Is it ever profitable to call here knowing you have his A dominated, and he is just drawing to a flush?

Pokerfarian · #2 10-05-2007, 08:26 AM

As weird a concept as it may seem, people sometimes don't tell the truth at the poker table.
If in his range PF is that wide & the stacks are such that he can openshove flop then just 4-bet shove preflop.
As played & if we can believe him 100% then yeah it's a call, would be helpful to know if J was a club & stack sizes though.

Yepitis · #3 10-05-2007, 10:06 AM

He will miss his flush 65% of the time but what if his kicker is already on the board?

PantsOnFire · #4 10-05-2007, 11:00 AM

If that's his range, then shove preflop and save yourself from having to make these decisions.

liveplaya · #5 10-05-2007, 12:44 PM

the jack was a club. I have played w this player alot b4 and he has always told the truth ( don't ask me why) so I 100% beleaved him.i ended up calling him and winning. But is this play profitable in the long run knowing close to 100% of the time its only a flush draw?

rufus · #6 10-05-2007, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the jack was a club. I have played w this player alot b4 and he has always told the truth ( don't ask me why) so I 100% beleaved him.i ended up calling him and winning. But is this play profitable in the long run knowing close to 100% of the time its only a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only for calling equity. The flush draw range is at a small advantage (52-57%) against your AKo. If his push is less than about 10 times the pot, you can profitably call.

PantsOnFire · #7 10-05-2007, 03:28 PM

I might not be following this correctly but I believe you are saying he has Acxc and thus a nut flush draw and you have AKoff and the board is 4 5 Jc with two clubs.

If his x card is not a 4 or a 5, then he has 12 outs. You are ahead so feel free to call every time.

If his x card is a 4 or 5, then you have 2 outs (3 if you have Kc) with a non-club backdoor straight draw which is not very good at all.

This is a situation where you are slightly ahead or way behind. In these types of situations, you want to be pretty darn sure it's the slightly ahead one. 100% might be too much but you're in the right ball park.

Lee_C · #8 10-05-2007, 04:09 PM

He has 9 outs (for his flush) unless you have 1 or 2. So, if you have no clubs he has 9 outs or (9x4)-(9-8)= 35% (Thanks Dan Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] ) to make his flush. So all you need are the correct pot odds to call his all-in. However, if he also has a pair with his Ac (a 4 or 5) then you are behind and must improve your hand to win. So that changes things.
You only have 3 outs because any A helps him too. So if you think he has a pair and is telling the truth about the flush draw then you are 13.2% to catch. Or 8.5 to 1 dog.... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

PantsOnFire · #9 10-05-2007, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He has 9 outs (for his flush) unless you have 1 or 2. So, if you have no clubs he has 9 outs or (9x4)-(9-8)= 35% (Thanks Dan Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] ) to make his flush. So all you need are the correct pot odds to call his all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you are ahead, you don't need to consider pot odds because worst pot odds you can be offered is 1:1 and when ahead, you call.

Also, villain can win by pairing his kicker and having it hold up so he has almost 3 more outs as well as the 9. But that wouldn't matter becaue you'd still be ahead and could call any size bet that you bankroll could handle.

flytrap · #10 10-05-2007, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has 9 outs (for his flush) unless you have 1 or 2. So, if you have no clubs he has 9 outs or (9x4)-(9-8)= 35% (Thanks Dan Harrington [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] ) to make his flush. So all you need are the correct pot odds to call his all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you are ahead, you don't need to consider pot odds because worst pot odds you can be offered is 1:1 and when ahead, you call.

Also, villain can win by pairing his kicker and having it hold up so he has almost 3 more outs as well as the 9. But that wouldn't matter becaue you'd still be ahead and could call any size bet that you bankroll could handle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize I'm nitpicking here, but just being ahead doesn't mean you should call at 1:1. Something like KQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a big favorite against 22 on a T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flop, even though the pair of dueces is currently winning the hand.