When to give up when you miss

[AMadison]

$2/$4 - 8 handed

The table has been fairly tight most hands not making it to the showdown. BB had played to this same pattern, tight and passive.

PreFolp: Hero is SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero Raises, BB calls, 1 fold.

My reasoning here for a raise was that against 2 random hands K9 wins more than 1/3 of the time and with tight play I thought I could just pick up the pot right here.

Flop:(4.5 SB) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>
Hero bets , BB calls

My thinking here was that if BB missed I pick up the pot right here.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero Bets, BB calls

My thinking here is I now have a double belly buster and if BB probably didn't get help here

River (5.25 BB) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero Bets, BB calls.

The only way I could win this pot was to bet it and hope villain would be scared of an A and fold a small pair or fold a missed draw.

Are my justifications of my actions good thinking or just excuses to make poor decisions? Comments on any street would be appreciated.

[kbdunn]

PF: Probably raise is close since BB is tight, but you had a poster in CO.

Flop: Bet is standard even though this flop will hit much of villains range. Basically getting 4-1 to pick up the pot right there.

Turn: I check this, the T also can easily hit the villains range and getting raised here sucks. Check and hope villain checks behind or c/c.

River: c/f. It is important to understand some basics of betting on the river. Betting here is horrible, only hands that have you beat are calling. You beat some busted draws, but they arent calling your bet and will check behind you (unless the villain is capable of bluffing the river).

You are only getting 5-1 to make the villain fold a better hand, so only when you have a super solid read that this guy is a nit and will fold when an Ace shows, you should lead out, even then, there is still the possibility he has an Ace anyway.

[AMadison]

[ QUOTE ]


Turn: I check this, the T also can easily hit the villains range and getting raised here sucks. Check and hope villain checks behind or c/c.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why does getting raised here suck... I have 8 outs to the straight, plus spiking a K often times is good to, a raise from villain and I have 6-1 odds on a 17% draw (the straight). That makes it easy to call a turn raise and c/f the river UI.

[kbdunn]

You may still have the odds, but when you are raised by a better hand, you are putting more money in the pot (compared to villain) than your current equity versus his.

Say optimistically 9.5 outs for double gutter and your king outs, which is roughly 20% equity on the turn. You want to be putting no more than a fifth of the total bets occuring on fourth street (eg villain bets, 3 callers and then you call).

[jesse8888]

PF and flop = good.
Turn = meh. I think betting is alright, but I'd probably check and call a bet if I had the right price (didn't do the math).
River = bad. He's basically calling with a pair (all of which beat you) and folding without one (all of which you can beat).

[abby318]

preflop: standard raise especially with dead money posting.

flop:standard. in WITHG on page 149. stox writes as the preflop aggressor you must bet 100 percent of flops even when out of position.

turn: standard. u are getting 3.5 to 1 on your bet in this spot. its very common for people to call with virtually atc on the flop in a blind versus blind situation but quickly release a hand on the turn.

river: with k-high this is c/f situation. sometimes if your read on villain is aggressive you might be able to call with as little as ace high. our villian usually has a low pair in this spot and the river will go check-check. however villian will not fold to a river bet.

[jomatty]

pf i think can go either way, but raising is fine. flop standard. turn i much prefer a bet. unlike everyone else i think that betting the river is prob in order. there is a very good chance that your opponent has a small pair type hand, and once that ace comes off he has to ask himself what he beats. if he is calling down with a 5, 7 or some other small pair you very well may get a fold out of him, and this is enough of a chance that i think you need to hit it one more time.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
stox writes as the preflop aggressor you must bet 100 percent of flops even when out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a reason to do it. I mean, it's the right thing to do, but you shouldn't do it just because someone said so. I guarantee you that WITHG makes plenty of statements about the game that are debatable, don't apply in particular situations, etc (I really like WITHG, by the way).

Think it through for yourself and come up with the reason why this statement is true. Then you'll better be able to identify the times it's not.

[kbdunn]

Elindauer, I agree with all the information you posted. However my post was under the impression this is a live 2/4 game and the villain is normal passive.

I dont see many live 2/4 villains who are passive bluffing this river with air. Online, id be way more inclined to b/f the river or c/c.

I suppose im just way underestimating the fold equity of this villain given the scare card. Given that, in hopes the villain is at least a thinking weak tight, leading out the river is not as bad as I had originally thought.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
PF: Probably raise is close since BB is tight, but you had a poster in CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a tight BB, raising is the only option. Clearly folding is out, and you are getting 3:1 to fold the 3rd guy. Your raise buys tons of flop fold equity as well.

The poster will likely fold the flop more than half the time, and he's not folding the flop after hitting it even if you check. All upside for a preflop raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: I check this, the T also can easily hit the villains range and getting raised here sucks.

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You will be raised very rarely given villains range. Fearing that the T is going to turn his hand into a raisable hand is just fearing monsters. You have a nice draw anyways, so when you get raised, it really doesn't suck, in fact. Sucking is getting raised holding a gutshot + overcard or something like that... the kind of hand you may have to just barely fold if raised, but would really like to see the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Betting here is horrible, only hands that have you beat are calling.

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That's the definition of a bluff. That's not horrible, it's poker.

[ QUOTE ]
You beat some busted draws, but they arent calling your bet and will check behind you (unless the villain is capable of bluffing the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean, unless the villain is a poker player? How many players aren't capable of bluffing the river with a busted draw?! Have you ever met a player like this?

Given this, your bet serves as a dual role as a blocker in a spot where you may have the best hand and don't want to be moved off the pot.

-eric