78s flush draw in Mulligan - deep stacks

[Yoshi63]

Tried converting the hand, but it was leaving out stacks and betsizes and other thigns, so I just tried to make it easy to read the raw HH.

Villain in this hand is the SB, and he's playing 49/9 after 50 hands. I haven't seen him be particularly aggressive postflop. He has been limping a ton from all positions.


FullTiltPoker Game #4071522427: The Sunday Mulligan (30657917), Table 58 - 120/240 Ante 25

Seat 1: vegan213 (2,880)
Seat 2: smfit29 (12,260)
Seat 3: mossified84 (6,744)
Seat 4: kyct1969 (23,309) <-----Villain
Seat 5: DeuceBuster (3,465)
Seat 6: kskool911 (11,460)
Seat 7: rhino111352 (6,907)
Seat 8: bootswild (13,143) <-----Hero
Seat 9: dsindy (2,811)

vegan213 antes 25
smfit29 antes 25
mossified84 antes 25
kyct1969 antes 25
DeuceBuster antes 25
kskool911 antes 25
rhino111352 antes 25
bootswild antes 25
dsindy antes 25
kyct1969 posts the small blind of 120
DeuceBuster posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bootswild [8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
kskool911 folds
rhino111352 folds
bootswild raises to 615
dsindy folds
vegan213 folds
smfit29 folds
mossified84 folds
kyct1969 calls 495
DeuceBuster folds

*** FLOP *** [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
kyct1969 checks
bootswild...?


1) Do you cbet here? Normally against this opponent I would cbet almost any hand, but since we have a decent draw (but not great) that would lean me towards checking to not risk getting c-r'ed off.

2) Say we bet ~2/3rd pot (1100), and he check-raises us. How large a c-r are we calling? What about 3bet shoving?

[Yoshi63]

Since this got no replies I'll add to it.

I bet 1111, villain c-r to 4800. I'm not getting proper odds to chase, and it seems pretty obvious he either has a J or K he's willing to go to felt with. Now I have to fold?

If you can, please just give a few tidbits of your thinking if you were in my spot here.

[JayPez]

as we are deep i think i prefer a check behind. If you catch your flush you are very likely to take a lot of chips off the villian if he hit because

1. He has a big stack and so we be more likely to put chips in with a marginal hand.

2. He has a tendancy to see way too many flops (therefore spewy station like)

A continuation bet will be profitable since the villians range is wide and he will be folding an enough %. But if he check raises (like he did) you may not have the odds to continue with the hand.

if you cont bet...

once u get check raised big i dont think u are getting enough fold % from a 4 bet since hes spewy station like. your not getting the odds to call so i u have to fold.

[LuckyLloyd]

OP, you seem to be a little results based here. In your description of the villian you say that he has not been aggressive postflop; and is playing 49 / 9 open - limping etc. Why do you expect to get check raised then?

Continuation betting was pretty standard. If you now think that you have no FE then yes - just fold and move on.

[Yoshi63]

Jay,
Thx for your reply. You put what I was thinking into concrete words, and added some I wasn't thinking. That always helps

[ QUOTE ]
OP, you seem to be a little results based here. In your description of the villian you say that he has not been aggressive postflop; and is playing 49 / 9 open - limping etc. Why do you expect to get check raised then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're getting at, but it's not so much that I was expecting to get check-raised as it was just a consideration. This was the type of villain who folds to cbets often enough that it will show a positive expectation. But since this is a situation where we can check through (also plenty of EV given our chances to improve + implied odds), I don't know which is better. You state you feel it is a standard cbet - can you expand on this at all?

You are correct though that analyzing what happened after my cbet is being results oriented. I did actually want comments on my decision after being c-r'ed as well, despite now clearly seeing it's a v std fold given my little FE perception.

[LuckyLloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I see what you're getting at, but it's not so much that I was expecting to get check-raised as it was just a consideration. This was the type of villain who folds to cbets often enough that it will show a positive expectation. But since this is a situation where we can check through (also plenty of EV given our chances to improve + implied odds), I don't know which is better. You state you feel it is a standard cbet - can you expand on this at all?


[/ QUOTE ]

You've answered why c - betting here is standard yourself. If he is playing 25 of the last 50 hands he is flat out missing most boards (probably - he could just be cardracking of course) and therefore can't continue most of the time. Against a tighter thinking opponent c - betting would be worse here.

Seems he just flopped something decent this time so, as I said, you just need to grit the aul teeth and move onto the next hand. He's got plenty of chips to get at!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BadgerPro]

If he hasn't been aggressive post flop I'm going to fire this and expect to only get raised by a jack. If he c/r's and doesn't give me odds to chase then I'll pitch it (if he makes some minraise I'll probably peel). I'd much rather fire this flop and get his Arag hands, small pair hands, and mid connector hands out. Also, when he just calls I can peel my free river card to hit the flush.

[JayPez]

Seems he just flopped something decent this time so, as I said, you just need to grit the aul teeth and move onto the next hand. He's got plenty of chips to get at!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

thats why i check behind here, i want to win a big pot off this villian, not just a small cont bet pot. I want his chips before someone else get them.

[JayPez]

and also whenever anyone calls in the blinds with these stacks their range is often weighted towards big cards (which probably hit, even if just a gutshot) and pairs (which is possible to bluff off on a later street if the flush dont come).