Folding bottom set

[Zele]

Villain is a TAG, 15/10/3. First couple orbits, no qualitative reads, which is obviously a really bad thing here. UTG is passive, like 25/5/1. He has $250 to start and I cover.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$200) <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, MP calls $8.00, Hero calls $8.00, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($27.00) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $17.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45.00</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises all-in ($216.75)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $305.75.

[xwillience]

man, thats a tough fold. if your stats are only for a couple of orbits, Im going broke here. you have to have more than TAG and those stats after 20 hands in order to lay this down.

this could be AJ or QQ or even a really fuct AA/KK.

[orange]

QQ-KK-AA.

[MrMxyztplk]

You folded thinking MP had 44 or JJ? Do you think he'd lead the flop with those hands? I find that kind of player usually c/c. I also find he'll lead AA/KK here a lot and overplay it in precisely this way. So I would have called.

[Zele]

Sorry, I was unclear: the stats are for 1000 or so mined hands. We've just only played a couple of orbits together.

[xwillience]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I was unclear: the stats are for 1000 or so mined hands. We've just only played a couple of orbits together.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. I still think I have to call here. 100bb and no read. 44 and JJ are definitely in his range.... but AJ and QQ+ are too. or maybe 34 even. call here and you will definitely have a better read next time on your opponent which may be worth more than 1 buy in.

[Zele]

Yeah, I think I was playing a little scared.

Thanks for the replies.

[Nick C]

Interesting. I'm thinking MP will sometimes 3-bet JJ preflop, so those 3 combos should be discounted a little. But then there's also 44, and it's not as if you're actually crushing hands like JdTd and AdJd, although you are a healthy favorite against them.

So 6 combos have us crushed, the not-so-plentiful combo draws (maybe AdJd-JdTd for 4 combos and maybe Ad2d/Ad5d for two more, although I'm thinking Villain won't necessarily cold-call those weak suited aces preflop) are in bad but not horrible shape against us.

Possibly Villain gets tricky preflop with AA-QQ sometimes, though. And maybe he'll play AsJs and some worse hands this way when he's steaming.

By the way, I don't really know how NL200 plays, so to some extent I'm making all this up. I don't think this is a fold I would have found, though.

[Worm75]

Huh, realize that you have over 1000 datamined hands on this guy, and I realize that the guy is kinda Rocky, but I still dont think that I fold this hand here unless you have some extensive playing experience with the guy and have a pretty good read here as to what he has. Like Doyle says, If I flop set under set, then congratulations to my opponent because the money is all going to the middle.

[carnivalhobo]

overpair, 56dd AdJd

bad fold