Turn decision #2

[mongidig]

3 players limp, I complete in SB with Js9c, BB checks. I have Tag image.

The flop: KdJc3h

I bet, MP calls(Fairly tight, straightforward) everyone else folds.

The turn: KdJc3hTc.

What should be my plan for rest of hand?

[Hass]

B/F turn. C/F river if he calls the turn.

I would expect the majority of people to raise a K here on the flop trying to thin the field. You might get a better jack to fold which would be fantastic. He might fold an ace or a nine that could beat you or tie you if you make your hand.

[BeakWetter]

I concur with Hass on this hand and on the first post.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
B/F turn. C/F river if he calls the turn.

I would expect the majority of people to raise a K here on the flop trying to thin the field.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would you c/f if you don't think he's likely to have a K?

I think I'd go b/f the whole way.

[cgrohman]

Start by placing more chips in the pot.

[private joker]

I'm not sure about bet/fold... we'd be folding a pair and a straight draw in a pot with 6 BBs in it, having potentially 9 outs. I'd bet/call and c/f river UI since he definitely won't be betting the river with a worse hand.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about bet/fold... we'd be folding a pair and a straight draw in a pot with 6 BBs in it, having potentially 9 outs. I'd bet/call and c/f river UI since he definitely won't be betting the river with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

potentially 9 outs is misleading. If we make our straight, an A has a higher straight. If we hit our 9, a Q now has a straight. When we take into account our average outs, and reverse-implied odds, and the lack of ability to extract when we hit, things are not looking so hot.

[private joker]

In practice we have to discount our outs, sure. But I'm saying "potentially" in the connotation that we could have as many as 9 clean outs, although likely it's more like 6.

Anyway, this is all IF we get raised on the turn, and I don't think too many hands that would make a gutterball with us would raise the turn (such as AT/AJ).

[that_pope]

[ QUOTE ]
B/F turn. C/F river if he calls the turn.

I would expect the majority of people to raise a K here on the flop trying to thin the field. You might get a better jack to fold which would be fantastic. He might fold an ace or a nine that could beat you or tie you if you make your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

No better jack is folding. All better Jacks include 2 pair or QJ (open ended straight draw) or AJ (gutshot straight draw). You would have to be up against a tight player who really really thinks you are a rock to get someone to fold AJ in this pot...

[Jim Morgan]

Is this kind of bet on the flop from the small blind automatic?

Is it a necessary sort of deception or actually for value?

I recall reading in HPFAP (or one of that group) that handling a hand
like Kh5h with a flop of KdJc3d from the blinds is very tricky and that
c/f, c/c and c/r are all viable and of similar value.

If that is true, doesn't this hand squarely falli into the c/f category.

Also, just why would AJ get involved, especially in early to mid position. A player in poor position is firing into several players. Maybe a call for a nice turn or to see if the better backs away, but should AJ really plan to just call down when the turn and river look to have low impact?

Sure, folding AJ feels really lame when the better has J9 and nobody else has a K, but it seems like most of the time this is calling with 5 outs. This is probably fine on the flop, but calling the turn with only 5:1 odds or so to imporve just seems spewy to me. But someone here said that you are never getting AJ to fold. I guess that is true on the river, since calling on the turn pretty much commits one to calling the river, but I just don't see calling the turn against a solid player.

And if I was going to get involved with AJ in that spot, shouldn't I raise?