Moving Up In Stakes

[BustoB]

I grinded my bankroll on bonuswhoring and silly cash games and just couple of months ago started playing only sng's but nowadays I run 50's with over 500BI bankroll and I'm just starting to play 100's.

No matter how big my bankroll is the swings keep making me sick sometimes! I coulnd't never even try imagine playing with less than 100BI br

[Guthrie]

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I really don't care.

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Then maybe you should stop popping off about something you know absolutely nothing about.

[Guthrie]

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Arguing this with Guthrie is redundant. it's happened time and time again. He is one of the unlucky ones with a rigged account.

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Some people might think that moderators should refrain from making snide remarks, repeatedly.

[Guthrie]

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Assuming your graph is entirely from the $16s, you seem to have some sort of massive leaks causing huge variance. I could be wrong but you seem to have very common massive downswing spikes for huge amounts of money. Even in the beginning when you were winning big you had large drop offs. I don't think most good ROI players have such huge variations in winnings over and over.

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It was 16s in the beginning, then about half 16s and half 27s, running about 8%. Then I moved back to the 16s, then finally to the 6.50s.

Everyone likes to talk about leaks, tilt, whatever. No one who has ever looked at my HHs has ever identified any massive, or even substantial leaks, just a few minor things, such as limping pocket pairs early, which I changed, then watched my results plummet even further.

If I'm pushing from the SB with +5% EV against any reasonable range, I don't see how tilt could affect that decision either way. Once the chips are in the middle, neither tilt, leaks, or skill can affect the outcome.

But let's humor the arrogant jerks and assume that I do have massive leaks, or, in other words, I'm a terrible fish. Why didn't my graph start out moving steadily downward? Why does it move up, then nose dive, then steadily move up before taking another nosedive? What kind of leak causes someone to win steadily for a few days, then lose almost every all-in for days? What kind of skill set should I learn to prevent losing those all-ins?

[DannyOcean_]

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Assuming your graph is entirely from the $16s, you seem to have some sort of massive leaks causing huge variance. I could be wrong but you seem to have very common massive downswing spikes for huge amounts of money. Even in the beginning when you were winning big you had large drop offs. I don't think most good ROI players have such huge variations in winnings over and over.

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It was 16s in the beginning, then about half 16s and half 27s, running about 8%. Then I moved back to the 16s, then finally to the 6.50s.

Everyone likes to talk about leaks, tilt, whatever. No one who has ever looked at my HHs has ever identified any massive, or even substantial leaks, just a few minor things, such as limping pocket pairs early, which I changed, then watched my results plummet even further.

If I'm pushing from the SB with +5% EV against any reasonable range, I don't see how tilt could affect that decision either way. Once the chips are in the middle, neither tilt, leaks, or skill can affect the outcome.

But let's humor the arrogant jerks and assume that I do have massive leaks, or, in other words, I'm a terrible fish. Why didn't my graph start out moving steadily downward? Why does it move up, then nose dive, then steadily move up before taking another nosedive? What kind of leak causes someone to win steadily for a few days, then lose almost every all-in for days? What kind of skill set should I learn to prevent losing those all-ins?

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Stop at game 3950 obv.

[sence25]

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I had a 110 buyin downswing at the 60's earlier this year and I'm one of the best at that level.

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what makes anyone think they're best?
stop lying to yourself.
it just doesn't help.
clearly 7k sngs even can't happen to a decent player at the 16s where the avg skill is ridiculously low + a 110 downswing is close to impossible when you're one of the best at your stake.
i would never call myself one of the very best at the stakes i play because saying that makes seems to make you arrogant and lazy about your game.

[DannyOcean_]

I'd really like it if somebody could take all of their results and figure out their ROI variance and run some numbers on this stuff. As far as i can tell, everyone's variance for SnG's should be in the same neighborhood (maybe not exactly), even with expected ROI's that are very different. I wonder what can of variance and standard deviation a SnG player has on his ROI and what that means for a 10K games sample.

[Tantalus747]

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I'd really like it if somebody could take all of their results and figure out their ROI variance and run some numbers on this stuff. As far as i can tell, everyone's variance for SnG's should be in the same neighborhood (maybe not exactly), even with expected ROI's that are very different. I wonder what can of variance and standard deviation a SnG player has on his ROI and what that means for a 10K games sample.

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The higher the ROI the lower the variance.

[Tantalus747]

Guthrie, how much of the end of that graph is 6.5s? If you're even breakeven at 27s you should be crushing the 6.5s.

[The4thFilm]

Someone once posted a link to a calculator that calculated the odds that your true ROI was (whatever) based on winnings or losing over a certain number of games. Anyone know what I'm talking about?