$17k Guaranteed: Call-down with 3rd pair; hand-reading skills required

[blankoblanco]

Backstory: A little ways into the $24+$2 17k guarantee on Full Tilt. I've been at the same table the whole time, gotten sort of familiar with the players.

My image is pretty aggressive... I'm raising marginal hands with position, usually betting when checked to, with exception of scary board textures where I'm likely to face a check-raise. Villain hasn't showed down hardly any hands I can remember, but seems reasonably aggressive.

Sincere apologies for no hand-converter, the crap never works right for me : /

Full Tilt Poker Game #2864742398: $17,000 Guarantee (21305965), Table 38 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:14 ET - 2007/07/06
Seat 1: rowdydogg79 (2,918)
Seat 2: QueenSDHeart (1,975)
Seat 3: rizniles (1,399)
Seat 5: miss maui (1,815)
Seat 6: Silencer2386 (1,031)
Seat 7: fish_lovr (2,547)
Seat 8: combuboom (2,576)
Seat 9: Fast N Loose (2,721)
Fast N Loose posts the small blind of 50
rowdydogg79 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [7s 8h]
QueenSDHeart folds
rizniles folds
miss maui folds
Silencer2386 folds
fish_lovr folds
combuboom raises to 300
Fast N Loose folds
rowdydogg79 calls 200
*** FLOP *** [7h Jd 5s]
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 350
combuboom calls 350
*** TURN *** [7h Jd 5s] Qc
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,000
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom calls 1,000
*** RIVER *** [7h Jd 5s Qc] 6s
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,268, and is all in
combuboom calls 926, and is all in

The general reads at the top are fairly important to this. Can anyone make sense of my thought process?

[Coz]

I guess I can see where you are coming from, did you even think of hand ranges though. I mean, he dosen't have to have a monster to beat you, he could have been calling and raising with something like AJ, KJ, JTs, JJ, QJ, or he could have had a pp like 88+ or flopped a set. He could even have you dominated with something like A7o. If he knows you have been loose and aggressive then he is eventually going to come after you especially if he has a strong hand. I think you are beat way to many times and would definetly have check folded the turn.

[bulldogs24]

this is absolute spew

[FortunaMaximus]

[ QUOTE ]
this is absolute spew

[/ QUOTE ]

Stack sizes are wrong for a calldown line. You're basically stationing a piece of the board v what is gonna be 88-TT, Jx, Qx by turn.

Don't get attached to your PFR's. Find a better spot if you've been LAGging it up to this point. What's the point of smallball LAGging to accum if you're gonna throw away those chips on a bad line?

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes are wrong for a calldown line. You're basically stationing a piece of the board v what is gonna be 88-TT, Jx, Qx by turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suggesting a whole bunch of hands that don't even make much sense isn't going to make me find any of your guys' opinions very credible.

88-TT? lol, are you even reading the hand? Look at the turn. Yeah, that's a brilliant time for villain to turn 88-TT in a bluff. Same with a 7. Jx? Almost always checking to me on flop to aggressive-when-checked-to player because I'm going to put money in the pot but often fold to a bet.

Now Qx that was trying to steal the pot on the flop probably makes the most sense. It's possible but unlikely enough for me to call. The thing is that Qx now has a well concealed top pair and can check it to me as if to say "here, take the pot" and I'm going to bet it often. So Qx checks the turn fairly often, too. Again, I agree this hand actually makes sense, but not enough of a concern for me to fold

[footnbaseball]

sounds like you've got the hand all figured out, what do you need us for?

[kniper]

sounds like you just really want us to say you were right to call down.

"you were right to call down."

Look, this is a complete spew unless you have a very good read on the villain and you know he is good enough to take your image into account. I'm happy that you took down villain's bluff this one time. But you can't really expect anyone on this forum to help you when your idea of giving us a read is: "Villain hasn't showed down hardly any hands I can remember, but seems reasonably aggressive."

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I can see where you are coming from, did you even think of hand ranges though. I mean, he dosen't have to have a monster to beat you, he could have been calling and raising with something like AJ, KJ, JTs, JJ, QJ, or he could have had a pp like 88+ or flopped a set. He could even have you dominated with something like A7o. If he knows you have been loose and aggressive then he is eventually going to come after you especially if he has a strong hand. I think you are beat way to many times and would definetly have check folded the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought of hand ranges, and apparently thought of them a lot deeper than you did.

He knows I'm going to c-bet if checked to, but that the board is dry and I've usually missed. He's almost never donking a J or better into me on this board, let alone a set. If he's even clever enough to do that, he's usually checking the overcard turn as if to say "here, take the pot".

A 7 can donk the flop, but the only 7 that's donking the flop and still likes his hand on the turn is Q7.. A7 is never betting 1000 on this turn and turning an actual hand into a bluff. Q7 is pretty damn unlikely for me to not worry about it once I reach that point (but btw, Q7 is probably checking the turn to me also)

[Downbylaw11]

i'd raise on the flop if for anything, to save yourself from having to call down on turn and river and go broke. I know you dont have a big stack for putting in a good raise, but at least if he jams your raise, you can safely assume youre beat, leave yourself 1500 chips to make a move. looks to me like villian was maybe bluffing the flop, and then hit on the turn. Either way, he probably has you smoked, and because you didnt raise the flop, you really have no idea what he has anymore

[ssnyc]

blanko...your OPR numbers for rowdydogg79...are they right?