#1
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30nl - KQ turns monster draw
Villain likes to c/r flop with hands as weak as TPNK. He's the type to slowplay, so i discount 33/99/TT. I'm pretty certain his range here is AT-T9 and possibly JJ. Villain is 40/6/1.
Without doing the maths, i think i have enough FE here to make this a viable play... am i nuts? I figure for villain's range, calling the turn will likely cause villain to shut down on all my outs, getting little to no value. Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $13.70 BB: $50.60 UTG: $44.55 CO: $29.25 Hero (BTN): $59.85 Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) UTG calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.65</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $1.35 Flop: ($4.05) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.40</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4.80</font>, Hero calls $2.40 Turn: ($13.65) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $53.40 and is All-In</font> Comments on all streets appreciated. |
#2
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Re: 30nl - KQ turns monster draw
I prefer just calling on the turn. He's giving you profitable drawing odds, assuming our draws are live.
If you raise the turn all-in you need somewhere in the vicinity of 35% fold equity when your solid draw is live to break even. The all-in offers your opponent a little better than 2 to 1. I think it's probably close to a neutral EV play overall unless villain will always call top pair here. What leans me towards calling is the possibility we are drawing dead already. |
#3
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Re: 30nl - KQ turns monster draw
I also would have just called the turn.
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