Boxing This Weekend- July 7th

[Tuds75]

This is fight weekend is flying under the radar, but with 3 championship fights on HBO and Showtime this Saturday it could be an exciting weekend. I am going to be brief on straight to the point in this post.

Wladimmir Klitschko vs. Lamon Brewster

Ok Wlad is absolutely destroying everything put in front of him right now, but he was also doing the same a few years ago before his chin got exposed. Wlad has now become the fighter its hard to win money on because his odds are real steep, deserving so, but because of his weak chin any opponet will always have the puncher's chance against him. So I DO NOT recommend betting Wlad at anything higher then -300 just way too much of a risk, unless of course he is fighting James Toney or Chris Byrd. So then comes the O/U
7.5 rounds +106
7.5 rounds -116
Have to give props to the odds makers on this one, they set a VERY tough line. I was hoping they would come out with 9.5 rounds and something like -200, that would be NIIIICE, but those guys know what they are doing. This is a tough bet, the UNDER is bet, but 7.5 I think is going to cause people on both sides to sweat. I just think Wlad's straight right will connect against the wide open offense of Brewster. Brewster chin checking Wlad and getting a stoppage is also a possibility. But then again I could see Wlad jabbing and not wanting to let Brewster get close enough to KO him. Wlad has been known to fight a little cautious. This could resemble the Wlad/Brock fight where Wlad sleep walked through the first 5 rounds and then turned it on to finish Brock easily. I just feel like Wlad is on a roll right now and he KO's Brewster. Damn this is a tough bet, but if someone is looking to bet it, I would recommend the UNDER.

Vic Darchinyan vs Nonito Donaire
Vic Darchinyan -900
Nonito Donaire +700

Vic really pounded Nonito's less skilled brother really badly. Vic fights about as akward a style as there is, but I still believe a fighter with good footwork coupled with fast hands, the ability to dodge punches and avoid getting caught in a corner will provide a fighter chance to beat Vic. I think Donito might be that fighter. Let me rephrase that, Nonito might be able to beat Vic, but at +700 and going up its a nice longshot bet. If Nonito can stay out of the corners and show a little power of his own to slow down the constant coming Vic he has a chance. Betting Vic is much easier said then done.

Travis Simms vs Joachim Alcine
Travis Simms -298
Joachim Alcine +268

Over 11.5 rounds +106
Under 11.5 rounds -116

This fight could be a really exciting fight. Both guys are undefeated and Simms is another rugged straight ahead fighter who likes to throw everything he has. Alcine, also undefeated, will fight to win this fight instead of fighting cautious. Both fighters have KO power and both fighters have been down before. I just see fireworks from the opening round and eventually someone will get caught and hurt. The under is the way to go in this one, especially at 11.5 rounds at close to even money. This is my best bet of the night.

Enjoy the fights.

Tuds

[zstratt]

I agree with most of your thoughts. I'm on Wlad to win by TKO/KO. The 7.5 is a perfect number for the O/U, I'm not on it, but I'd take under if I had too. Vic should win, but can't bet on him at that price. My only disagreement is on the Simms fight. I could easily see the under happening, I have Simms to win by decision. This should be a great fight, to cap off hopefully a good day of boxing. GL

[trixtrix]

i'm on wlad by dec +500, this is an extension of the boxing total model i'm currently developing. in my estimation, each additional round either way on the total is worth approx 40-50 cents, depending on how high/low the perceived median total is. at a medium total of 7.5 rounds w/fair price of apprx +110, we can approx estimate going full 12 rounds at a fair price of +315, this seems in line w/ 5dimes prop estimate of bout going the whole duration +314/-372.

if the fight does go the distance, being the fight is in germany, there is at least 95% chance that wlad will get the dec being the he's home fav, a more technical boxer, and germany's constant hometown bias. so that implies that the fair price of wlad by dec is +437ish.

however external factors make this bet even more attractive. brewster have ton of heart and will not quit. klitschko will likely come out cautious instead of his typical aggression.

finally neither brewster nor wlad is a finisher in the later rounds. all 3 of brewster losses were by dec, he has only 1 out of 29 stoppages inside to occur at rounds 9 or later. in addition to wlad finishing inside the distance at 9 or later rounds 1 out of 43 tkos. this suggests an inverted convex plateau endings vs. total rounds curve. in other words, each of the early rounds should be weighted more heavily than the later rounds, which means the late rounds is probably worth less than the 45 cents assigned to it originally..

ps: i know i know, today's ufc fight night and i'm discussing boxing... fwiw i wrote a long diatribe explaining my positions but lost the whole thing when firefox crashed on me. didn't feel like rewriting it, besides there's plenty of good long discussions on the subject already.. for anyone who cares, i'm on rashad +120 LARGE, silva -125 MEDIUM, hermes +250 SMALL (yes those prices are real)

[Tuds75]

That at +500 for Wlad is a decent bet, but I think if Brewster can hurt Wlad early and make Wlad worry about Brewster's power, this will make Wlad spend most the fight jabbing and then holding when Brewster gets on the inside. If Brewster can't hurt Wlad early and Wlad can build confidence, this fight will be over quickly. Brewster does have good chin, but has been down a few times and Wlad just has too much power. You say Wlad has a 95% chance of winning a DEC in Germany (his home-away-from-home), I think those odds are low, I would say 98% Wlad gets the hometown decision or at least some help from the ref and/or judges. Germany might be the most corrupt place to fight.

Thanks for your input on the boxing match, but please don't hi-jack this thread by posting UFC in a boxing thread. There is a specific thread for the UFC please use that for posting picks.

Tuds

[ThaHero]

I was gonna post some thoughts on the Brewster-Wlad fight but didnt realize it was starting now. Oh well. I do agree with Tuds but my friend thinks Lamon will win. I dont have any action on this fight. Don't know much about the Simms fight, I have seen Darchinian. I may come back later with thoughts, but right now its fight time!

[zstratt]

That was pure domination. Nice call on the under Tuds.

[Tuds75]

Wlad Klitschko fighting in Germany = Peyton Manning playing in the RCA Dome.

They both take their games to new levels for the hometown fans.

Tuds

[Tuds75]

Looking at this fight, I think the OVER 9.5 is going to get to a nice price. Currently it is at +156, but I could see that climb to close +175 and maybe even in the +185 range. That is a good bet. Vic's power is for real, but like we just saw with Wlad Klitschko, Wlad and Vic's power is best served wearing an opponets down instead of finishing them with a single or barrage of blows. Both guys can and have done it, but I see both Vic and Wlad happy to beat away on their opponet for a while and then finish the opponet when they see fit. Miguel Cotto fights this way as well.

I see Donaire using his feet a lot in this fight, he will be "on his bicycle" throughout this fight. Donaire moving around the ring and Vic stalking looking to land a few hurtful blows when given the chance. This will cause the fight to go into the later rounds. The biggest threat to an early round KO is Vic landing is going to come from a body punch.

Plus being that this is a 12 round fight you have those nice cushy 2.5 rounds where Vic can still KO Donaire, but the over still wins, because Vic LOVES LOVES LOVES getting that KO on this record.

Donaire still worth a flyer at +700, but wait it out a little for the OVER odds to got up.

Tuds

[dankhank]

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Donaire still worth a flyer at +700, but wait it out a little for the OVER odds to got up.


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great call!

[Kirbynator]

GO ALCINE

DESTROYER OF WORLDS


he raped simms pretty badly: not in a TKO way, but he dominated him...