Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[rwperu34]

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What's your opinion on the Moneyball idea that tools/scouts are largely irrelevant and all you need is a player's stats?


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As a two decade "prospecter", I can tell you that I use the scouts opinions and combine that with the stats to paint the complete picture. The younger the player and lower the level, the more weight I put on scouting reports. For example, in rookie ball, the weight is something like 99% scouting reports, 1% stats. For a 23yo at AAA the weight is closer to 50/50, maybe even 60/40 in favor of stats. Once a player has an established level of performance in the major league, especially after his 25th birthday, it's about 100/0 in favor of stats.

To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.