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  #1  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:12 AM
Pat_Flush...Draw Pat_Flush...Draw is offline
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Default [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

early in the session no particular view on the villains

$0.5/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$108.40</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$33.75</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$99.00</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$47.55</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$93.50</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$119.80</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$39.00</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$62.05</font>)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 8 players) Hero is UTG A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero calls $1, <font color="#777777">4 folds</font>, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.5, BB checks

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4, BTN calls $4, <font color="#777777">SB folds</font>

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($16, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $16</font>, Hero ?


Wonder if a squeeze PSB has a chance to succeed in that spot.

what about raising the flop instead ?
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:50 AM
StrikeR300 StrikeR300 is offline
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Location: Idaho
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

-This is a standard fold PF in EP
-Raise flop
[ QUOTE ]
Wonder if a squeeze PSB has a chance to succeed in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say a vast majority of the time, a PSB in this spot would allow random villians to play perfectly against you.
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:52 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Location: L.A.
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

Hi Pat - (I could write Pat Flush, or Flush Draw, but I can't bring myself to write Pat Flush Draw, so I'll just go with Pat if that's O.K. with you).

I hate starting hands with small pairs, but for a buck I'd probably see the flop with this one too. I don't know about UTG, but whatever.

Anyhow the flop has your spade draw but screws up your low draw and you also make bottom set. And that's why I hate starting hands with little pairs. (Now what???)

I'd immediately want to know if BB had a higher set or top two pairs. In either case, if the board pairs on the turn and you don't make quads, you're between a rock and a hard place.

I don't know how you get that information in a pot limit cat and mouse game, but I'd raise the flop bet for absolute certain. My primary motivation would be to try to get information about BB's hand. Secondary motivation would be to either knock out a possible low draw, or make it more expensive than one should pay to draw for the back-door low.

In a fixed-limit game, it's simple. You raise one small bet, whatever that is. But in a pot-limit game, there's all sorts of stuff you can do. Basically, you can raise to $8, to $12, or to $16.

But I don't want to get re-raised the pot and then have to decide if the re-raise is from a higher set or a bluff or semi-bluff! Yikes!

This game reads like the automobile game "chicken," where you drive your car directly towards a possible head on collision with a possible fool in another card who is headed directly for you. The one who swerves is a "chicken" and loses. Both drivers win the game if they have a head-on collision. (In that case nobody was "chicken").

In a fixed-limit game, you raise, and if you are re-raised, you call. Calling the re-raise is no big deal, just one more small bet. And then you re-assess and decide what to do on the turn, depending on what the turn is.

In pot-limit, you raise, and if you are re-raised, you have to immediately re-assess and decide what to do without getting to see the turn.

But anyhow, I would raise immediately after the flop, and I guess for the whole pot. But I'll be very interested to see what the pot limit experts advise.

When Hero doesn't raise, Villain feels encouraged to bet again on the turn. And then Hero doesn't really know what he's up against. He might not know even if he raised on the flop, but maybe he gets a better idea, and maybe he gives pause to a Villain acting ahead of him on the turn.

So when BB bets the turn, I don't know what to do. I want that information we might have gotten if we had raised on the flop. It's like missing an opportunity that never will come again.

At any rate, enough crying over spilled milk. BB bets $16. Now what?

I think the most likely hand for BB is top two pairs. In that case, we're ahead. If we're ahead, let's apply a bit of pressure. Let's raise just enough so that a Villain with top two pairs doesn't have favorable pot odds to draw.

With top two pairs, Villain has four outs. There is also a possibility Villain has a low draw. Let's give Villain KTA2 (suits don't matter). In that case, Villain scoops with a ten or king (4 outs), and gets half the pot with a five, six, seven, or eight (16 outs).

So it's 24 Hero, 4 Villain, and 16 ties.

Sometimes I can write the correct equation and other times probably not. It doesn't feel like I have it here and I hesitate to write it because it's probably wrong and isn't considering implied pot odds for Villain.

At any rate, here's my equation, such as it is.
(48+H)*4/44+(48/2)*16/44-H*24/44=0
Solving, H = 28.8 and that's the minimum we can raise to give Villain unfavorable odds to draw, assuming Villain had KTA2, and not figuring implied pot odds.

We could raise $42 to put Villain all-in, and that would seem to make it tougher for Villain to call. I think we want to raise enough so Villain probably folds top two pairs, if that is what Villain holds.

If we raise Villain all-in, and if Villain goes for it, at least we can't get hurt any more. (In that case Villain doesn't have any implied pot odds).

Thus the way things stand, I favor a $42 raise on the turn, but I would have much preferred to raise on the flop.

Just curious. What's a "squeeze" pot sized bet?

I keep saying I'll stay out of these pot-limit hands, yet here I go sticking my nose into it again. (It's kind of interesting to me).

Buzz
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:16 AM
Pat_Flush...Draw Pat_Flush...Draw is offline
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

Many thanks for your analysis Buzz.

Patflushdraw is a nickname coming from a very (very) bad play i made on a PL 5 cards draw home game : I was on the button, three limpers on MP, i raised with a flush draw on a semi bluff with the intention of drawing one and bet out no matter what (very standard) but a guy called and stood pat !! I stood pat as well he checked , i bet the pot and get called by a set and here i am playing PLO8 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

In fact my first intention was to bet or raise the turn if a 9, T, J, Q or K hits. If i'm called or reraise, it's easy : i'm behind and could get out of the hand. but as you mention, his bet on a 3h doesn't give me any clue.

about raising the flop : i generally prefere acting (i mean taking the lead or raising) with marginal hands on the turn than on the flop. The pot is usually higher on the turn and it reduces the implied odds for the drawing hands and i'm not over committed if a bad card hits the tun.

PS : i think the EV equation is (48+H)*4/44+((48+H)/2)*16/44-H*24/44=0 solving H=48
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:30 PM
brian64 brian64 is offline
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

It smells like BB has a set and I can't even guess what the button has in order to be able to call the flop bet. Given that you didn't raise the flop, and that a low non-spade hit on the turn, I think you have to fold here. If you call, the only cards you are really happy to see on the river are Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and it's hard to call a bet if a non-spade hits.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:29 PM
rando rando is offline
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

Hard for some to fold this pre, but ITA it is the right move.

Also like a flop raise. I think a raise to $10 is enough to find out if he has a set (fold to further flop action) and get button out. If you make it past that spot, the turn is simplified.

After not raising the flop, your scoop draws (Q, 4, high spade) are not numerous and save for the 4 not likely to earn that much, so folding the turn is correct. Always tempting to call in this spot, but many of your good river cards won't scoop all too often, hacking your equity down to size.
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  #7  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:08 PM
GaZaZaZa GaZaZaZa is offline
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Default Re: [PL100] - small set + nut flush draw , squeeze the turn ?

i think the best play here is to try and put as much money in this pot on the flop as possible, ok small set isnt that great a hand, but when combined with a nut flush draw and a gut shot to the absolute nuts, its quite a monster of a flop, like what kind of flop are u after when you play a hand like yours, 2.3.5 spades?????


against buzz's hand of a-k-t-2 you are about 70% fav
As 4s 4d Jh 503 654 160 6 0 0 0 0.709
2s Ad Kd Th 160 160 654 6 160 0 0 0.291


even against a set with no low draw you are only a slight dog
As 4s 4d Jh 372 372 448 0 0 0 0 0.454
8c Td 9d Th 448 448 372 0 0 0 0 0.546

or a set with a low, you still arnt that bad off
As 4s 4d Jh 318 372 448 0 0 0 0 0.421
8c Td 7d Th 448 448 372 0 144 0 0 0.579

against something like a big wrap you also are quite the fav
As 4s 4d Jh 600 600 211 9 0 0 0 0.737
Qs 9s Tc Jd 211 211 600 9 0 0 0 0.263


given that, with no maths behind it, im sure buzz can do the calulations though, you run into a set here prob less then 30% of the time this is a great spot to put you money in, and even those times when you are up against a set your not that terriblly off...

my advice, put as much money as possible on this flop... and even the turn im still tempted to shove against villians possible hand range and how i face up against it
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