DS, god, and probability: the real brandi story

PLOlover · #1 06-03-2007, 09:29 PM

so anyway DS is walking (from the poker table) along on his way to the sports book after a quickie "mentoring" detour, planning on showing all those ivy league awholes whos the best when he wins the world series of horse betting,

but when he gets there instead of a cashier type it's the devil incarnate. the devil asks him if he would like to place a wager. DS says are you working here now or something? but the devil just smiles.

The devil continues on and says that this is a sidebet that DS doesn't really have to worry about the details, it's a free offer.

DS now is about to pee his pants but luckily he went right after his mentoring session so holds it together for the time being.

The devil details his offer as follows. He places two envelopes, A and B, on the counter. He will offer DS, free of charge, the choice of taking both envelopes, or just taking envelope A . The devil claims that he knows with virtual certainty what DS will pick, given that the devil has perfected his human measure metric analysis nomena, or H.U.M.A.N. for short, and has used it to win many people parlays. In fact, says the devil, it has never been wrong. (he mutters something about Job being before the whole H.U.M.A.N. system, and was in fact its impetuous.) The devil says he has already written a promissory note in each envelope, guarantored by "the big guy", based on the devil's prediction which has already been made.

The devil tells you that if he has predicted DS will pick only envelope A, they contain
A- 80/20 favorable staking deal with Brandi who will be guaranteed to win the world series main event (he mentions a similiar deal has been made before ...) as well as as many special mentoring sessions with Brandi (devil winks lewdly) as DS likes.
B- azz many venal sins with Brandi as DS desires

The devil tells you that if he has predicted DS will pick both envelopes, the envelopes contain
A- a free subscription to the watchtower magazine.
B- azz many venal sins with Brandi as DS desires

The envelopes are already on the table and an angel appears behind DS as a security guard and tells him to hurry up and pick it's not a trick or anything, what's written in the envelopes will not change,the contents are known to the angel, etc., and it is indeed guarantored by the big guy himself.

DS picked ...

baumer · #2 06-04-2007, 03:52 AM

his nose.

PLOlover · #3 06-04-2007, 05:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
his nose.

[/ QUOTE ]

please don't take my insipidly crafted story into the depths of the absurd.

PairTheBoard · #4 06-04-2007, 09:21 AM

If I'm understanding your settup right, we had a pretty lengthy discussion of this topic a while back. The logical problems involving foreknowledge and free will. Is it possible to know what the foreknowledge must be and thereby take advantage of it by switching to the more beneficial decision which contradicts the foreknowledge? Does the decision produce the foreknowlege or does the foreknowledge force the decision? I don't think we ever reached a consensus about what was going on. The analysis got very tricky to the point of being hard to distinguish from babble. I suspect we needed another dimension of thought to make sense of it.

PairTheBoard

Alex-db · #5 06-04-2007, 09:58 AM

Assuming we can't work out which would be chosen, and chance of 2nd-guessing himself makes the choice effectively 50-50. And assuming devil's invention works perfectly.

So if he chooses naturally he gets either the (a) "80/20 deal etc" or (b) "magazine & venal sins"

Say he tosses an unbiased coin to choose instead:

1/4 same result (a)
1/4 (a) + "venal sins"

1/4 same result (b)
1/4 magazine only

These just need their utility priced up. Looks intuitively like choosing (not randomizing)just A is best here.

PLOlover · #6 06-04-2007, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming we can't work out which would be chosen, and chance of 2nd-guessing himself makes the choice effectively 50-50. And assuming devil's invention works perfectly.

So if he chooses naturally he gets either the (a) "80/20 deal etc" or (b) "magazine & venal sins"

[/ QUOTE ]

no, the the envelopes contents are already there.

if the devil predicted DS would take both they contain
A) watchtower magazine
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

if the devil predicted DS would choose only A they contain
A) magic so brandi wins world series and DS gets most of the money and also DS gets to mentor her sexually
B) potion to make brandi his love slave

PLOlover · #7 06-04-2007, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If I'm understanding your settup right, we had a pretty lengthy discussion of this topic a while back. The logical problems involving foreknowledge and free will. Is it possible to know what the foreknowledge must be and thereby take advantage of it by switching to the more beneficial decision which contradicts the foreknowledge? Does the decision produce the foreknowlege or does the foreknowledge force the decision? I don't think we ever reached a consensus about what was going on. The analysis got very tricky to the point of being hard to distinguish from babble. I suspect we needed another dimension of thought to make sense of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes but the difference here is that DS may actually prefer that Brandi not win the world series lol.

Piers · #8 06-04-2007, 12:18 PM

The devil’s bullshitting, which should be obvious. As to what DS would choose, both which should be almost as obvious, but I might be wrong.

Unless of course the devil’s not bullshitting, in which case DS will make the choice the devil predicts, personally I still think he is bullshitting.

BTW who’s Brandi?

MaxWeiss · #9 06-05-2007, 04:43 AM

David picks one envelope, and it's A. No question, end of discussion. He knows it's the right choice even though he hasn't been given the info we have because he's gone through the game theory in his head and has figured out that A and only A is the best choice. He wins 80% of the top prize at the series and buys himself a nice, brand new, deluxe pat on the back.

PLOlover · #10 06-05-2007, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
David picks one envelope, and it's A. No question, end of discussion. He knows it's the right choice even though he hasn't been given the info we have because he's gone through the game theory in his head and has figured out that A and only A is the best choice. He wins 80% of the top prize at the series and buys himself a nice, brand new, deluxe pat on the back.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he gets the watchtower? now since he's a reader he'll probably become a JW and on top of that no sex with brandi?

Besides, logically, the contents of the envelopes won't change, so there's no downside to picking both. He gets brandi in B, and if A has the money then it has the money.

But I think DS would pick both envelopes for a different reason.